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I might give it a try. I work slow & I'm underpaid. Add to the fact, I just finished dinner and I need time to digest my food.
I believe I have the correct math equation - so that's a 1st step - employed to predict a future population based upon an exponential (explicit) growth model.
Last edited by Vintage Chief; March 26th, 2020 at 05:25 PM.
“You always see vicious rallies in the midst of bear markets. The best example is the Great Depression, when the S&P rallied eight separate times, on average 24 percent each, on its way to losing 86 percent from peak to trough.
I was at 50% of the DOW. Not 86%. Treasury Secretary and FED put a band-aid on it. With more band-aid if needed.
High school friend is a English teacher in northern Italy. She messages me on Facebook. Her and her husband, have been in lock up too long. She said they have nothing in common and now hate each other. No divorce lawyers are open. Or they both would have went. I told her they must of had something together. Four adult children together. Hope they do not kill each other.
She also said. There too many caskets and can not bury fast enough. Storing them in the local Ice Rink. Army helicopter flying overhead all the time.
Yeah, I was wondering just this afternoon what happens when there are more dead than caskets, morticians, funeral plots, etc. Do we just start dumping bodies in mass pits? Force cremations? I guess if I'm one of the dead it won't matter to me at that point, but for now I do wonder.
My SWAG for Total USA deaths on Easter (April 12). Someone double-check my math. I'll run the same equation on the total confirmed cases and pretend I'm in math class double-checking the 6" air space between my ears.
Question:Between Mar 19 and Mar 26, USA COVID-19 deaths grew almost 3% to a total of 1300 deaths. If the death rate is sustained, what would the total # deaths be on April 12?
Between Mar 19 and Mar 26, USA COVID-19 confirmed cases grew almost 12% to a total of 82,000 confirmed cases. If this rate is sustained, what would the total # confirmed cases be on April 12?
Last edited by Vintage Chief; March 26th, 2020 at 06:59 PM.
I might give it a try. I work slow & I'm underpaid. Add to the fact, I just finished dinner and I need time to digest my food.
I believe I have the correct math equation - so that's a 1st step - employed to predict a future population based upon an exponential (explicit) growth model.
I will take a shot at it. Who gets the virus.
If Italy has like 60,000,000 people. 80,000+ have it and growing. guesstimate I like round numbers. 4 000 per day per average for 30 days more(they did not get to the top of the curve yet.) 120,000 more. 200,000 total this may be low. So that like 1 in 300. Death rate higher, More older people.
USA 330,000,000. Man, I do not like this next number 1,100,000 get it. this maybe low also. The US curve is like a rocketship. No pun intended! We are two week or so behind Italy. And we did not lock down the county!
And something I found said 950,000,.
Three weeks and counting, we have self quarantine. Few days ago started putting mail and delivers under three day quarantine for cardboard. Cleaning everything else with clorox wipes. I really would like to have a peaceful death in my old age. Not this virus..
Between Mar 19 and Mar 26, USA COVID-19 confirmed cases grew almost 12% to a total of 82,000 confirmed cases. If this rate is sustained, what would the total # confirmed cases be on April 12?
You have to propose a date at some point in time. A rate is relative to a period of time. That is how you derive the rate itself. You can't simply formulate the notion x number will die. It is dependent on what date X number of people will die.
As I proposed in Post #328 we should expect 2,149 deaths on April 12th, 2020 (if the rate remains constant). Of course, the rate will never remain constant - it will eventually fall off as you approach the finality of the total (N) population. But the equation predicts 2,149 deaths 4/12/20.
I understand how you derived 16,890 deaths - (0.13 x 563,015). Yet, that isn't the death rate relative to the total # of confirmed cases I do not believe; but, I can quickly check.
Last edited by Vintage Chief; March 26th, 2020 at 08:09 PM.
You have to propose a date at some point in time. A rate is relative to a period of time. That is how you derive the rate itself. You can't simply formulate the notion x number will die. It is dependent on what date X number of people will die.
As I proposed in Post #328 we should expect 2,149 deaths on April 12th, 2020 (if the rate remains constant). Of course, the rate will never remain constant - it will eventually fall off as you approach the finality of the total (N) population. But the equation predicts 2,149 deaths 4/12/20.
I just used your date of April 12 = 56301 virus cases with a 3% average death rate = 16890 deaths. However currently there are 384446 cases world wide, with 23714 deaths so far, which equates to a .062 overall death rate.
I just used your date of April 12 = 56301 virus cases with a 3% average death rate = 16890 deaths. However currently there are 384446 cases world wide, with 23714 deaths so far, which equates to a .062 overall death rate.
Right. 0.062 is not an overall death rate. That is a percentage, fraction, ratio of the number of deaths to the # of confirmed cases. It is not relative to any time period. It is only a proportion (rate, fraction, percentage, ratio, etc.) - there is no time period involved.
On the date of April 12, 2020, you could propose a proportion (%) of death relative to the total number of confirmed cases from the equations I performed to see how it matches up with the global numbers to date.
3/26/2020
(24,057 deaths/531,860 confirmed cases) x 100 = 4.5% (percentage of confirmed cases resulting in death - global)
(1290 deaths/85653 confirmed cases) x 100 = 1.5% (percentage of confirmed cases resulting in death - U.S.A.)
4/12/2020
(2149 deaths/563,015 confirmed cases) x 100 = 0.5% (percentage of confirmed cases resulting in death - U.S.A. - from mathematical model)
Id say you are fooling yourselves if you believe on that ~2000 deaths by 4th of April.
I bet its soon gonna ramp up, especially if number of patients developing hard breathing problems surpass the amount of those intensive care places locally. Local is one key word, since theyve reported of many cases that transferring the patient is a no-go and would kill the patient.
Last edited by Inline; March 26th, 2020 at 10:17 PM.
Id say you are fooling yourselves if you believe on that ~2000 deaths by 4th of April.
I bet its soon gonna ramp up, especially if number of patients developing hard breathing problems surpass the amount of those needing them.
What I am concerned about is China's numbers. They are not at all realistic. I think the US may be the highest cases on paper, but I think China may still have more. I do not have the data.
Several million cellular phone accounts no longer are active in China, but it is within the normal flux of the accounts. Other things, like sulfur atmospheric emissions, have been debunked as not
being what the pictures say they are, so no mass crematoriums running, and also the black rain in Japan is not apparently from Chinese burning of bodies, but from a plastics plant fire in Japan nearby.
I have tin foil theories, and no hard data. A lack of data is scarier than having data, sometimes.
How can you even guess how many will die. Just too many variables! More ventilator, more live. Less ventilator, more die. Our health care system is at the breaking point. In some places it has broken down. This is just starting. Hospitals are not prepared for the huge influx of people who will need to be in beds. Its all Bullshit they are getting the masks, gloves, protective gear they need! Ten million masks are just a drop in the bucket. All of them are reusing everything that is one time use. Soiled masks,and gloves being reused. Health care workers are past their limited now! What the ***** do you think will happen when there are 2, 3, 4 or more times. Who will need intensive care?? Still not enough testing kits. We can easily look like Italy or Spain. Whats 10% to 6% of 1,000,000 dead. And how many more in intensive care..
Not to mention all the Health care workers that are getting the virus and sick! Who replaces them? We were caught with our pants down.
The only hope maybe is that some kind of FDR deal. Like CCC camps, But for young people this time to help in Hospitals. With all the equipment they will need to be safe. Or young people just to step up. And do what right for the nation. I know some will say. Good luck getting young people to help do anything. Many will. The rest, Draft them if need be. Again! This is war! FDR did it.
Those residing in urban centers have the most to worry. If you live rural, your best chances are to keep a distance from one another and only go into public areas when necessary. If you're not showing symptoms within 14 days of taking preventative measures, you'll make it. Right now, cosmopolitan areas like New York and the West Coast are being hardest hit
Keep in mind that hospitals are never designed to have empty beds and they are not staffed to have employees standing around waiting for something to happen. Same with medical equipment. So, no one is medically prepared for an event of this magnitude.
Exercises for death rates is just that. An exercise. With all of the "exponentials" there really isn't even a mathematically reliable formula for this. All it takes is one person in "Anywhere" USA to do something stupid that could infect thousands downstream.
So, the best answer to the question of how many will die...A butt load. More than we can ever imagine.
A hospital in NYC is preparing for death storage by utilizing refrigerated 40 foot trailers. Quite a # are on standby.
I think I mentioned before that this is going to get a whole lot worse, before it gets a little bit better.
In addition to medical triage, we will see economic triage with regards to small business. Many, such as mine, will likely be to small to save. The new $$$ feds have set for business isn't enough to support everyone. The loan handlers will have to decide what business lives or dies. That's just for the new $$$. It is close to impossible to drill through the Small Business Administration to apply, as the system is overwhelmed. Much like various states unemployment application websites.
Be safe out there. And wash those hands!
Last edited by KW5413; March 27th, 2020 at 05:51 AM.
Things aren't looking that great across the US. States like Florida, Michigan, Louisiana, Georgia, and California are going to be emerging hot spots. Case numbers and death rates will rise dramatically in the next week. Lack of supplies like PPEs, ,such as gloves ,gowns, and lack of ventilators will take an exacting toll. Effort to provide needed equipment is being hobbled by lack of effective leadership. Barring a miracle, things will continue downhill at an ever increasing rate. Keep taking the appropriate precautions and don't become a statistic!
How can you even guess how many will die. Just too many variables! More ventilator, more live. Less ventilator, more die. Our health care system is at the breaking point. In some places it has broken down. This is just starting. Hospitals are not prepared for the huge influx of people who will need to be in beds. Its all Bullshit they are getting the masks, gloves, protective gear they need! Ten million masks are just a drop in the bucket. All of them are reusing everything that is one time use. Soiled masks,and gloves being reused. Health care workers are past their limited now! What the ***** do you think will happen when there are 2, 3, 4 or more times. Who will need intensive care?? Still not enough testing kits. We can easily look like Italy or Spain. Whats 10% to 6% of 1,000,000 dead. And how many more in intensive care..
Not to mention all the Health care workers that are getting the virus and sick! Who replaces them? We were caught with our pants down.
The only hope maybe is that some kind of FDR deal. Like CCC camps, But for young people this time to help in Hospitals. With all the equipment they will need to be safe. Or young people just to step up. And do what right for the nation. I know some will say. Good luck getting young people to help do anything. Many will. The rest, Draft them if need be. Again! This is war! FDR did it.
It's really not a fair thing to judge people for not wanting to be volunteer hospital workers when it means contracting a potentially lethal disease. Nor is it particularly impressive to invoke FDR, whose New Deal considered controversial still and may have made things worse.
There are definitely two mindsets to dealing with this: The "European" mindset, which is all band together, ventilate who needs it, work hard to save everyone, and if you get it, we'll work hard to save you, but not if you're over 65 like in Spain. Then there's the "American" mindset, which is take care of your own and others will do the same. I don't know which one is right. Are you supposed to put yourself at risk to help others?
In news here in Finland they announced that US had all-time-high of people to register unemployed on one day, and that dont even include people who are prohibited to get unemployment benefit for a reason or other, and those who cant even register themselves for some reason. Is this real news?
Unemployment rates are ramping up here too. Financially this might get bigger than some depressions- even if its for shorter time-span. It dont take many months for regular working people to lose everything when no money runs in yet all the bills and depths run.
More idiots running around acting like this is a hoax and not a real threat, higher the death rate.
A week ago while at the liquor store, one of the employees started going off on just that type of rant, loud enough that the whole store could hear, as he walked from behind the counter past me at the checkout. I came this close to fake-coughing on him as he walked passed to see how far he'd jump, but my better judgement prevented me from doing so.
It's really not a fair thing to judge people for not wanting to be volunteer hospital workers when it means contracting a potentially lethal disease. Nor is it particularly impressive to invoke FDR, whose New Deal considered controversial still and may have made things worse.
There are definitely two mindsets to dealing with this: The "European" mindset, which is all band together, ventilate who needs it, work hard to save everyone, and if you get it, we'll work hard to save you, but not if you're over 65 like in Spain. Then there's the "American" mindset, which is take care of your own and others will do the same. I don't know which one is right. Are you supposed to put yourself at risk to help others?
One month today, trump said there is only 15 people have it, and It's a like a miracle, it will disappear.
I said that many, who will volunteer . WWII, after Pearl Harbor was attacked. Most young men volunteered! To do what is right! They volunteered to be shot at and bombed.
You can say that. But Roosevelt called for five major goals: improved use of national resources, security against old age, unemployment and illness, and slum clearance, as well as a national work relief program. Enjoyed some notable accomplishments, even if it failedto promote full-scale economic recovery..
After looking at news this morning. My numbers, who get this virus may be wrong. It looks like Millions will get the virus here. People needed to be tested long ago to control like South Korea. And the nation needs to locked down. This is still being spreading everywhere. It will not stop, till summertime or a cure..
Look, I'll admit that while the fact that there are now over 100,000 cases in the US (that we know of), there are also 326.9 MILLION people who do not have it. On the other hand, the infection rate continually increases (over 15K new cases so far today) and more disturbingly, the number of deaths is increasing (251 so far today). To put that in perspective, there are about 100 deaths from automobile accidents every day in the US (36,500 killed annually), so the virus is 2.5 times that number.
Look, I'll admit that while the fact that there are now over 100,000 cases in the US (that we know of), there are also 326.9 MILLION people who do not have it. On the other hand, the infection rate continually increases (over 15K new cases so far today) and more disturbingly, the number of deaths is increasing (251 so far today). To put that in perspective, there are about 100 deaths from automobile accidents every day in the US (36,500 killed annually), so the virus is 2.5 times that number.
326.9 MILLION people who do not have it? I think there will be a few more who have it if the testing rate increases. Not to start an argument, just putting it out there.
March 26th, 2020, 02:41 PM
