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I thought I'd throw out this data compilation analytical data tool which I've been following for several weeks. Sometimes it's tough trying to decipher hearsay from facts. Click on the link/URL below.
Thanks for the info Norm. The media tends to hype up everything now a days, and I'm not saying that we shouldn't be concerned, but as a reference, in 2017, 647,457 people died in the U.S. from heart disease. Cancer, 599,108 deaths.
I suspect it is the next mad cow, swine flu, bird flu, H1N1, west nile....... Next year it will be mad pig virus and we will be killing them with angry birds
I think it is something to be concerned with, but what can one guy do..?.. not much. I know that way back mass plagues killed huge amounts of people. The grim reaper will get us all. Thanks for posting, Norm.
Reminds me of the mass-hysteria 10 years back about H1N1.. Way, way out of proportions. Media, and especially social media which is global and reaches hundreds of thousands, millions of people in a millisecond does that.
It's not akin to yelling fire at the movin' picture show but, the CDC is right on the edge of it. Its one thing to inform and quite another to scare the bejesus out of people. Which some are reacting in that way. Just look at the stock market and mask inventories.
The economics could be the bigger threat. This is a BIG IMPACT scenario but, one of the most plausible, in my mind. Almost every car / truck made has components made in China. If the manufacturer isn't using them directly, their suppliers are. You don't have to close to many Chinese manufacturing plants to shut down global automotive manufacturing. Think about it. The lack of one single Chinese part could shut down an entire assembly line...or plant.
Manufacturing has been stickily for the past few months, as it is. Ownership has been stuffing $$$$ in their corporate mattresses for awhile. Plant closures could kick it square in the teeth.
Due to the tariff situation the company my daughter works for ($ 1.3B privately owned) started sourcing some electrical components, that normally came out of China, from South America. But, only a small portion. They are still dependent on Chinese suppliers. Some parts just aren't made anywhere else.
The Preppers are way ahead of most people on this and the wanna-be preppers have scarfed up most of the N95 masks and long term food stores. Damn...I wish I stock in those outfits.
I was looking at one of the Prepper type 25 year Survival food companies and they had a warning 2 days ago stating their orders were up 30x causing 3 week shipping delays. Then yesterday, 35x. This morning 100x with shipping delays of 5 - 6 weeks.
Today I heard that the Ebola kill rate is much higher than this "19" virus but, spreads much slower. So, this new is harder to contain.
I, also, read that the CDC has stated that healthy people ready don't need the mask but, as always, WASH YOUR HANDS! The masks are highly recommended for those that have symptoms.
Wow. We usually use surgical masks when mowing the lawn, so last summer I had to restock and buying a large quantity netted me at 2.50 per box. We have PLENTY of these surgical masks on hand....to mow the grass. They'll keep big dust and grass blades out, but viruses? Doubt it. Virus gets on surfaces, you transfer to you, adjust your mask, get virus inside mask...well, that silly mask was a big help. Unless you're wearing a Tyvek suit and a hog head, you're still going to be an exposure risk.
If you buy the prepper kits and what not, it really isn't doing you much good having to wait a month and a half to get food. The best chance is to avoid making unnecessary trips to town or at large events, until the threat of exposure crests. There will be a crest. How long that will take to get there is TBD. Perhaps go at night or early early mornings to get supplies and avoid the larger crowd.
I liken it to being as infectious as the regular flu, but it's likely to be a bit more serious should complications arise. So we're going to stay home for a while. There's way too many people that don't take any precautions whatsoever that may indeed be carriers and not even know it.
I'm not overly concerned with this virus as a health issue personally. I am concerned with the emotional wrecks that have their hands in the stock market and wrecking it right now. I'm holding pat, but I'm getting hammered right now. I didn't want to kneejerk, but my best bet looking back would have been sell out on Tuesday, hold, and buy back in late today or tomorrow and see what happens. At least I could avoided a triple hit. I've done that before and it bit me in the ****. I'm just going to sit for now since I'm in it for the long haul anyway. So far I've been pushed back to September 2019 levels. 5 months of gains- gone. And that's just up through today. Don't know what will happen tomorrow. Well, ok, that was not including my dividends. That made up for about 1/2 of that back. But still.
Keep it in front of you and don't panic. There's not much we can do except ride this storm out.
What makes this virus alarming is not how lethal it is but rather it's potential transmission. Apparently a person can carry it and spread it without showing any symptoms at all, so they don't even know they have it as they infect other people. The incubation period is between 3 days and two weeks, so a person can do a lot of damage without ever knowing it. So far the disease only has a 2% fatality rate, but if everyone in the US eventually got it, that's seven million dead about. That kind of body count effects everyone. It also turns out, you can become infected and ill more than once. A person in Japan that had it, recovered and was cleared, has now become reinfected and sick again.
So far, in the past 24 hours, there is still only 12 infected in the US out of a total of 60 cases. The total has not increased for over 24 hours. Maybe it will stay that way.
It's just a matter of time. There's not much anyone can do about it except not panic and do stupid stuff. It's already here. And there are those, as stated, that have it and nobody knows it- yet. As with any of these ordeals, all we pretty much can do is keep washing their hands and not congregating with huge mobs of people. I totally blame China for dragging their feet trying to save face (if that was even the plan in the first place) when all this crap started and didn't tell anyone trying to contain 10 lbs of crap in a 5 lb bag. They allowed people to come in and go out of China all over the place for weeks before anyone said anything. The toothpaste got out of the tube before anyone else knew the cap was off. I still find it odd that an infectious disease facility just HAPPENED to be a couple miles away from where all this was claimed to be started. I think it was an "oops" (and even that could be questioned) incident that nobody is owning up to. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but it sure seems odd to me.
That 2% death rate, while true if you believe China's numbers (I don't, I think there's a much higher infection count than they lead everyone to believe), doesn't extrapolate directly to 2% everywhere. With that, if everyone in China were infected, they'd lose plus 20 million people. At first, when it was mainly only reported in China, that percentage was higher. There are some places that will have more die than others if this thing gets more widespread. By that account, we should already have 1 dead in the U.S., but that hasn't happened. I hope it doesn't happen anywhere, but unfortunately, it's something to take seriously, but at least at this point, I don't think it's bad enough to press the panic button. But don't expect the CDC or any governmental agency to protect you. They can't. No one can. Be vigilant in trying to protect yourself and your loved ones. That's all you can do.
There are worse things out there. HIV can be carried symptom-free for decades and be spread far and wide without detection. Given the choice, I'd pick the coronavirus. I'm not trying to diminish the concern or severity of the issue, but people need to educate themselves of things they can do to help prevent the spread and what can be done if you do end up with it. Unfortunately, we're all going to need supplies in some form, so if you buy anything you either have to have it shipped to you or you go to the store to get it. Thus, you're interacting with people you don't even know or can't even see. And unless you disinfect everything coming into your home, or an honest-to-God Prepper who lives pretty much in self-quarantine mode anyway, the chance is always going to be there. From what I understand, the virus can live on some surfaces for up to 9 days.
. And unless you disinfect everything coming into your home
Be careful out there.
My wife just has a major surgery. The surgeon said about a month before her surgery that we need to be extremely careful that she does not get sick before or after her surgery. He pointed out things we never thought of before. My wife, in the winter has always wiped down all groceries that she brought into the house and things like that. He pointed out that the mail, and packages from ups or fed ex need to be cleaned as well. We had to turn into germaphobes to keep her from getting sick for a while. Even the kids have to wash their hands and be really careful at school. They change their cloths as soon as they get home and toss them in the washer. If one of us does end up sick, we will have to leave till we are better. It is surprising how much we have learned about not getting sick. We will have to continue for a long while because she is far from healed.
There have been over 16000 deaths from influenza this flu season 250,000 hospitalizations 25 million infected as was said be cautious , but don’t panic either it’s not corona bola lol wash your hands often people are gouging on this **** prices for masks etc sky rocketing and masks are not recommended unless they are fitted and worn properly actually can do more harm as you bring your hands to your face more often to adjust , be careful for the one two punch corona virus leads to Lyme disease :-)
I am in no way trying to turn this political, just something to think about. The CDC official spreading panic about the CO-19 virus is Rod Rosenstein's Sister. In the political division we are in I would not trust much of anything reported about this virus either way. My personal opinion was stated above. I feel this is just the next mad cow, H1N1, bird flu, west nile.... But I am no doctor, just a car builder. I guess time will tell
I feel this is just the next mad cow, H1N1, bird flu, west nile
Originally Posted by VC455
Amen, brother. In situations like this, remember that there is no degree of stupidity to which government cannot aspire.
You guys are both right.
I grabbed this from Wikipedia. Note that the "regular" flu, called the "seasonal flu," the one we're all supposed to get flu shots for each year, kills hundreds of thousands annually in spite of everything we try to do to stop it. The most recent "big" pandemic, the H1N1 of 2009, had the lowest number of fatalities of any event in the chart.
This is just life. We don't see Drudge Report headlines screaming at us about the seasonal flu. We don't count the number of cases on a minute-by-minute basis. We don't have websites devoted to it. We go about our lives like we always do.
I just read that people are starting to cancel domestic travel plans. C'mon, people! Don't give in to panic. What are you going to do, hole up in your house for the next six months? I've got travel by plane scheduled for two weeks from now, the end of March, the end of May, and the end of July (for the OCA Nationals). I'm not cancelling any of them.
Yes, this coronavirus appears to be a bit more deadly than the "regular" flu. But it's still just "the flu." Most everyone recovers from it like you do when you get a cold or the seasonal flu. You take a day or two off work, take some cough medicine, suffer some achy muscles, and recover, just like I've been doing my entire life. You take the normal precautions to avoid it you would always take. Wash your hands. Avoid contact with obviously sick people. Go about your life.
Last edited by jaunty75; February 29th, 2020 at 07:33 AM.
Guys maybe I'm very naive to this, to me it's like other viruses that have come and gone. I'm going to start bottom fishing on some good to great stock buys... it will roar back...
The main issue with Covid-19 is the MORTALITY RATE. It is roughly 20 times higher than the seasonal flu. There is no vaccine, nor cure. That is why the WHO and CDC are so concerned.
I am in no way trying to turn this political, just something to think about. The CDC official spreading panic about the CO-19 virus is Rod Rosenstein's Sister. In the political division we are in I would not trust much of anything reported about this virus either way. My personal opinion was stated above. I feel this is just the next mad cow, H1N1, bird flu, west nile.... But I am no doctor, just a car builder. I guess time will tell
You're not kidding. Watch out for stein's, berg's, and farb's.
The main issue with Covid-19 is the MORTALITY RATE. It is roughly 20 times higher than the seasonal flu.
We really don't know this yet.
Here's a portion of a paragraph from the same Wikipedia entry that had that chart I posted above. This is talking about the 2009 H1N1 virus. The first sentence reminds me very much of what we've experienced recently with the coronavirus.
The initial outbreak received a week of near-constant media attention. Epidemiologists cautioned that the number of cases reported in the early days of an outbreak can be very inaccurate and deceptive, due to several causes, among them selection bias, media bias and incorrect reporting by governments. Inaccuracies could also be caused by authorities in different countries looking at differing population groups. Furthermore, countries with poor health care systems and older laboratory facilities may take longer to identify or report cases." Even in developed countries the [numbers of flu deaths] are uncertain, because medical authorities don't usually verify who actually died of influenza and who died of a flu-like illness".
I have a co worker who is in a panic over the corona virus.
What does he think is going to happen?
Here's an interesting statistic I just found.
The odds of being struck by lightning are 1 in 3000.
According to WebMD, 5 to 20% of the U.S. population contracts the flu each year, and 8,200 to 20,000 of those die from it each year. If we take the U.S. population as 300 million, 20% of that, the worst case scenario, is 60 million. If we take the worst-case scenario for the number who die, 20,000, and divide that into 60 million, we get....1 in 3000! In other words, in the worst case scenario, your likelihood of dying from the flu in any given year is the same as your likelihood of getting hit by lightning.
Here's an interesting chart from the National Safety Council website showing the odds of dying from various things. Tell your friend that the odds are much better that he will die in a car accident on his way to work than he will die from the flu, or even from the coronavirus.
Nothing has been "proven." Yes, if you look at the current numbers in the link at the top of this thread, currently 85,997 confirmed cases with 2941 deaths. That's a death rate of about 3%, which is high compared to the other pandemics in history. But this has a long way to go to fully play out, and it's only after it's all over and we have complete data will we be able to say with certainty what the death rate was, if we ever will.
Note the uncertainty in the numbers in the chart above. For 2009 H1N1 virus, the number of people infected is estimated at between 10 and 200 million. That's a HUGE level of uncertainty. This isn't 1885 or 1915 or something like that, this is 11 years ago in the modern age of medicine, and we still have a huge uncertainty in how many people actually were infected. At this point, no one can say with any level of certainty what the death rate will ultimately be from the coronavirus when this is all over.
Last edited by jaunty75; February 29th, 2020 at 01:38 PM.
Here's a portion of a paragraph from the same Wikipedia entry that had that chart I posted above. This is talking about the 2009 H1N1 virus. The first sentence reminds me very much of what we've experienced recently with the coronavirus.
The initial outbreak received a week of near-constant media attention. Epidemiologists cautioned that the number of cases reported in the early days of an outbreak can be very inaccurate and deceptive, due to several causes, among them selection bias, media bias and incorrect reporting by governments. Inaccuracies could also be caused by authorities in different countries looking at differing population groups. Furthermore, countries with poor health care systems and older laboratory facilities may take longer to identify or report cases." Even in developed countries the [numbers of flu deaths] are uncertain, because medical authorities don't usually verify who actually died of influenza and who died of a flu-like illness".
If there is money to be made, the media will make every attempt to "cash in". It nauseates me when I read & hear the media report the mysterious coronavirus, the scary coronavirus, etc., etc. The media knows nothing about the coronavirus and Jaunty is correct in citing some specific cases of the media disseminating disinformation (media bias). It would surprise many to learn ~10% of the genetic sequence of the human body is comprised of viruses. This isn't to say those 10% are pathogenic virions - they are not. Yet, my point should demonstrate the fact media is clueless in how they represent and believe they are providing a service to humankind w/ regard to the manner in which they report the "news".
It's true this is a "novel" coronavirus, but we've known of coronaviruses for a very long time. They're simply one of many viruses. The fact we have been able to identify viruses and the types of viruses which exist would not have occurred w/o the brilliant discovery of DNA/RNA by Friedrich Miescher (1868) and the incorporation of the discovery of the double-stranded helixby Watson & Crick in 1952. Since 1952 our knowledge of protein synthesis has grown exponentially in terms of the benefits to humankind.
Unfortunately, the media creates a frenzy when they attempt to unravel and disseminate biased scientific information. There probably exist, IMO, several hundreds of thousands of humans (perhaps millions) who have already been infected w/ this particular SARS-CoV-2 virus - most of whom have already recovered and are leading fruitful happy everyday lives. They will never be identified as having contracted SARS-CoV-2 because they have already recovered (most likely because they thought it was merely a case of the common influenza) & they will have never been tested via a RT-PCR kit. It has spread rapidly and will continue to do so mainly because it is a positive sense RNA virus versus a negative sense RNA virus. But, that's just the way it is and positive sense RNA viruses replicate more rapidly than negative sense RNA viruses.
I suggest the media educate the masses not only on the proper method of washing our hands for 20 seconds (30 seconds recommendation by NHS in the UK) w/ soap & water, but also the importance of properly washing our butts.
I provided the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases CSSE tool (link) as a means to demonstrate at a minimum solid scientific data which was indisputable based upon (and this is the caveat) - "confirmed" cases. The only way they know they are confirmed cases is because the individuals were tested and they were identified as positive against the SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR kit. It speaks nothing to the (IMO) hundreds of thousands which were infected & have already recovered.
The people (fear mongers) on several other forums (and w/in the media) who proposed a bio-weapon outbreak are insane. Several of them identifying the fact coronavirus was patented in 2015. Yes, you first must identify the virus (that's called genetics), then you must sequence the viral genome (in this case positive sense RNA), then you hope to perhaps someday create a vaccine for humankind against the virus. This is everyday normal scientific investigation which most often gets incorrectly reported.
Last edited by Vintage Chief; February 29th, 2020 at 01:44 PM.
Reason: sp
February 26th, 2020, 02:49 PM
