jaunty75

Another tidbit from Wikipedia, this time from their coronavirus page. I put in bold the interesting part. As jensenracing noted above, the one death in the U.S. so far is of a middle-aged man with pre-existing health issues.

As of 29 February 2020, more than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19. According to China's NHC, most of those who died were older patients – about 80% of deaths recorded were from those over the age of 60, and 75% had pre-existing health conditions including cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.

The average 45-year-old in otherwise good health who contracts the virus is not likely to die from it.

therobski

Here another stat and that's why I'm not to concerned: So far, 16,000 people have died and 280,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC.Feb 21, 2020..... FLU vaccines are made ahead of time ( for us before our respiratory season starts) where flu breaks out first obtaining the various strains, to make vaccine that may or may not work. Usually way down under in Australia that part of the world CDC has a website. Further more, what was mentioned above is true,most people did not die from the flu but rather complications that manifested ( preexisting health issues) from getting the flu.

RandyS

Jaunty, you always have to have the last word......... (it really does get old). I didn't say that the final results were in, I said that it has been proven that the mortality rate is roughly 20% higher than a normal flu. Flu is always harder on the elderly and infirm, this one is killing 20% more of them than usual. Since I am a senior citizen (as I imagine many of us on the forum are), I take this very seriously.

OLDSter Ralph

I heard another statistic, normal flu deaths are about 0.1%. "This flu" is 2-3% fatal, so far.

4+4+2=10

Hope it doesn't get started in those tent cities in San Francisco. I bet things would light up pretty quickly if it did.
tc

Oldskeeper

As of 6:00PM today we have three confirmed cases in the Toronto GTA (greater Toronto area) all three have just returned from Iran so Iran must be the next hot spotfor this virus.

jaunty75

It depends on where you look. Here's an interesting article in Popular Science about the coronavirus. It says that the fatality rate is 1.4% based on data from countries other than China where the disease has occurred. Data from China is considered suspect, according to the article, and is therefore not used. A 1.4% fatality rate, if it holds up, would make the coronavirus less deadly than the SARS epidemic of 2003. The article also point out that the CDC estimates that, between last October and today (February), about 30,000 people have died from the seasonal flu. But you don't hear about that at all (nor should you---it's just life).

https://www.popsci.com/story/health/...6WEHt-nTJoDwa0

jaunty75

Do you understand the meaning of the word "proven." I would guess not. It's a pretty strong word, and you don't find it used very often in the field of statistics.

Also,you just contradicted yourself. If the final results are not in, how can anything be proven?

As I said, NOTHING has been "proven" in the coronavirus episode. Estimates of the fatality rate vary. Some have been quoted here. I just noted the 1.4% fatality rate that Popular Science mentions. But they don't say it's been "proven." They say that's what it looks to be based on current data, but it could certainly change.

In the end, when this is all over, maybe five or ten years from now, some final conclusions will be made, but even those will require a grain of salt to be believed. Just look at that data in that table from Wikipedia above. Even after 11 years, we really have no idea how many people were infected with the H1N1 virus, and the estimate of the number of deaths varies by a factor of four, so any statement of fatality rate is not far from pure guesswork. The 0.03% value quoted is actually a little strange because it's outside the range of values calculated using the data in the table.

The extremes can be calculated. Assume the worst case scenario. Only 50 million infected (which is actually good), but 395,000 of those died (not so good). That's a fatality rate of almost 4%. On the other extreme, assume the infection rate is 200 million but the number of deaths is the lower-end, 106,000 value. In that case, the death rate was only 0.05%. That's a factor of 80 difference between the best and worst case scenarios. What that table should do is give a range for the fatality rate like it gives a range for the number of people infected and the number of people who died. It would read that the fatality rate was 0.05 to 4%. Can't pinpoint it any better than that. And this is 11 years after it happened, and we probably have all the data we're ever going to have.

We're only three months into the coronavirus episode, and it will be a long time before the final book is written and even general conclusions can be made about the infection rate, the fatality rate, or any other statistic, and those will likely have as large an error bar as the statistics from the H1N1 episode.

I'm well over 60 myself. I also take it very seriously.

OLDSter Ralph

According to Dr. Laura Ashton, Chief Medical Expert for ABC TV Network, who was quoting a Federal source (CDC or NIH, or such), Corona-virus was 1.4% Fatal. She also said normal flu was about .1% (one tenth of one percent) fatal.
Another major network (forgot who) did a news segment with a "virologist" who suggested that she was "80% certain" the virus began in China and possibly came from an infected bat in a filthy market area. Furthermore, the virus started about the 3rd week in November through tools such as carbon dating.
Since I don't eat bat wing soup, am in reasonably good health, and we really don't know enough yet, I am not going to get concerned.
And for anything to be "Proven", we need final statistics, as you have said.

jensenracing77

I don't know much about who Dr.Drew is but here are his thoughts.

jensenracing77

And a follow up. Starts at 2:00

RandyS

And here we go again......

blakes7

We are told that the Coronavirus is not much worse than the flu. I haven't had the flu since the 1990's, Thank God, but I hope I never experience that ever again. It was bad, so bad that for the only time in my life I DIDN'T feel like eating. I can see how the sick can die from it. I'm supposed to visit NYC in a few days for a concert that my cousin will be performing in, and now I'm hesitating to go. I'll be traveling by Long Island Railroad and a few stops on the subway, because driving to and from Manhattan and parking there is almost impossible (not to mention the squeegee attacks). On one hand, the thought is to not live in fear and miss out, on the other is to not take the increasingly likely risk of getting badly, or deathly sick. There's also the usual risks of getting sick or attacked by the bums all over the place, and the strong whiffs of marijuana (something I detest) everywhere now that the police are ordered to look the other way (thanks to the absent mayor DeBloodyO). It's a dilemma, for sure.

69HO43

blakes7, We'll all die in the end. If you're in reasonably good health, you shouldn't fear living life. If you take precautions for the flu, this should be no different. It's obviously a concern and you need to make the decisions for yourself, but I personally don't buy into all the hype at the moment.

If you stop doing what you're doing because of some remote chance you'll get this bug, then you're just going to miss out on things. In a few weeks when the spread becomes worse, and it will, it may be different. But right now, I think any chance of running into this thing is very low. I'd fear getting robbed more than catching this virus. Nature takes its course, you'll wish you would have went when it was much safer. It's your call in the end, but I don't think it's an imminent threat in the next few days.

jensenracing77

Must be nice. I had it for around 30 years in a row. I have not had it now for around 3 years and would love to go another couple decades without it.

therobski

I have not heard but I don't have my ear to the wall either but when the temperature heats up the virus most likely will go away....April moving forward depending where you live. My opinion.

Kennybill

I don't mean to be a "smart ***" but proper hand washing is one of your best defenses. I have 15 acres about 10 acres of woods and lots of poison ivy. A few years ago I watched a YouTube video about poison ivy with a Doctor showing proper hand washing. He used automotive dark grease and covered his hands, working it in. Washed his hands with soap and hot water. Looked clean but then he showed grease under his fingernails. Washed again, everything looked clean, "wrong" between the fingers was grease. If one had touched poison ivy without scrubbing like him, they'd have a problem. Jmo.

Firewalker

Pretty much a daily round up of the real news on it

https://www.trunews.com/

Unless they pull a rabbit out of a hat the outlook is pretty grim. There are 2 strains of it and it may bite you more than once, after you survive and that's an if. There are probably thousands to 10s of thousands of cases already in the US. Its invisible, with little to know symptoms in contagious people, for up to a month. It can exist on plastic or metal surfaces for up to about 9 ways. Fecal, urine, eyes, nose, mouth all spread it and or are infection points.

Denial won't change whats here. No workers no work. No customers no business. China is largely shut down still and will not be back for a long time. India just shut its door to shipping out many vitamins and drugs. Travel between countries is shutting down as well as tourism. Energy usage is plummeting but so to is pollution.

Here is another page with more technical information

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/...sources-cited/

1969w3155

The mortality rate is 3.4%. Why would you say "if' you survive? Yes it is higher for the elderly, the very young, and those with underlying illnesses, or compromised immune systems, but that happens with the flu or any of the other viruses that have hit us over the years.

Firewalker

If you survive is more complicated and gets worse as it spreads and millions become infected and sick. The 2-6% mortality spread is at the first of all this in some very advanced countries medically and may be lower that reality to prevent more panic.

OK, now about 75-80% they claim will not have a severe enough case the first time at least to require hospitalization. But those that do will required vetilators, and they will not have the beds, staff or equipment for many of those of the millions sick at the same time. Looking bad now for that 15-20% that forgot how to breath.

But whats about the rest. Well, when the trucks, ships and planes don't run, and the stores closed and empty. Every place this hits turns into a ghost town fast, and once its virtually everywhere. Here is another little link that went up about a month ago

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

And you can strongly suspect the real numbers and spread is much higher, and it all started with just part of China. Its now in about 80 countries we know about. 80 countries cancelling schools, religious events, quarantining large numbers of people and areas. And its all the tip of the iceberg. I wish you and everyone luck, and the more you learn the more you will learn why.

therobski

When someone goes to the doctor with "flu like" symptoms ever notice when they test you with a flu test kit there is a 2 diagnosis for FLU, most common and worst is FLU A and then there's FLU B which has lighter effects as we roll towards spring into summer ( gets warmer out) or a negative and you don't have the FLU. Then the another annual "virus" is strep throat. It spreads like wild fire usually when school starts back in the fall-you parents with kids in school will tell you all about it. OH what about mononucleosis ( mono the kissing virus) ?? That's another "virus" BUT once you have mono, treatment only resuscitates the virus it NEVER goes away. It stays with you. Know anybody with it? Don't believe me ask them...I have put on my chin strap to ride this out and Ill be 67 this summer...no worries...

Firewalker

I have about 5 years on you, and I am not feeling like I am in such great shape, but none of this is about me and my survival. But I didn't know Mono was like herpes and never goes away, so thanks for that piece of info.

The problem with this virus is multi folded, and thinking of it on the same level as other common viruses seen before is a huge mistake. But then again the old major media and the government have been implanting this concept of "its just the flu".

Does the flu get 750 million put into emergency hard quarantines?? No way. Does the flu kill the doctors and nurses fighting it?? Well not many. This virus as an example has killed both the whistle blower doctor in China on this and also the head of their Wuhan hospital among many other medicasl staff.

Does the flu leave your ships stalled out and not bringing you goods, new and replacement parts, prescription medicines, or cause thousands to be fired at the airlines,.Nah

And its actually just beginning in the world, and already having these effects. Does the flu cause this cancellation of religious routines, tourism and the rest like this?? Nah

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2170488...g-famed-sites/

The stock market continues to crash today even with market manipulation and plunge protection in effect. I wonder why.

It is not another virus no more than Ebola is. The problem Ebola had was it killed quick and those infected were easily recognized, as infected fairly quick. Neither is the case with this one.

Will warm weather slow it down?? Maybe, but it also if that's the case ill mean waves of it hitting, and a possibility of it becoming seasonal. The real danger is everything coming to a halt, for a very long time. That's not mono or the flu, where when we caught them the rest of the world went about its rat killing. We are now seeing history in the making.

Vintage Chief

Actually, TYPE A and TYPE B are nearly the same with regards to virulence. The severity is 'generally' determined and characteristic of the age group in which either is contracted.

You're close, but need clarification regarding Strep throat. Strep throat is not caused by a virus, it is caused by a bacteria - specifically of the (gram positive) Streptococcal bacteria (specifically Streptococcus pyogenes). Additionally, strep throat is not annual. There is a tendency (propensity) for strep throat to increase in the number of cases during the winter and spring, but this is highly dependent on region and living conditions.

There are basically two types of the common influenza - TYPE A & TYPE B. Generally, one lineage of TYPE A (Alphainfluenzavirus of the virus family Orthomyxoviridae) affects humans & two lineages of TYPE B (Victoria and Yamagata) affects humans. There exist several subtypes of TYPE A but one subtype of TYPE B. You can become severely ill from either TYPE A or TYPE B primarily as the result of either TYPE A or TYPE B leading to bacterial pneumonia. One of the most important things a person can do to reduce complications associated w/ both TYPE A & TYPE B is to get both Pneumonia vaccines.

PCV13 helps protect against 13 of the most severe types of bacteria that cause pneumonia - Prevnar 13
PPSV23 protects against an additional 23 types of pneumonia bacteria - Pneumovax 23

Vintage Chief

There are many Corona viruses and there are many Herpes viruses which lead to many different diseases - far too many to have a discussion. EBV (Epstien-Barr Virus) leads to mononucleosis, but many of the Herpesviridae members also lead to significant diseases - not all, but some e.g. Herpes Simplex 1 & Herpes Simplex 2, Shingles, Mononucleosis, Chickenpox, etc. The distinguishing factor here is the type of virus. Members of Herpesviridae are DNA viruses (of which Coronavirus is not a member). Coronavirus is a positive sense single stranded RNA virus (see Post #40 above) and is completely different in all respects from any DNA virus. What makes the coronaviruses more virulent is the fact they are positive sense (acting like mRNA) and can immediately produce proteins; unlike a negative sense RNA virus which must employ (infect) the host cells to transcribe the negative sense RNA to positive sense RNA in order to produce the proteins. This is one of the reasons a positive sense RNA virus is more virulent than a negative sense RNA virus - a positive sense RNA virus can immediately produce proteins and requires no intermediary host for transcription.

HighwayStar 442

Hopefully it not as bad as people say. But, better safe. My Grandmother talk about the 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, It infected 500 million people around the world or about 27% of the then world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion, including people on isolated Pacific islands and in the Arctic. The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history.

WWI did not help, people are heather and cleaner now. But with little testing, we do not know! How far into the US it is. China locked down huge areas, to help keep it under control.
Something that would by hard or next to impossible to do here.
​​​​​​​

KW5413

That is because we a still a, somewhat, free society.

Just an interesting situation to ponder: In the grand scheme of things, we are a free society. Yet, we find ourselves in a situation where we are sequestering / quarantining / isolating those that might be sick. I am not aware of it being against the law to be sick...or almost sick...and certainly not maybe kinda sorta could get sick.

What do you think would happen if you refused?

Now, with said, I get it. I am damned near 67, in relatively good health. But, I don't want to sit next to someone in a restaurant and them be blowing this stuff around me...or my family. The Queen is 62 with asthma. If she starts having an event, are they gonna lasso her and put her in quarantine? Or, me for sniffling because I am allergic to Mountain Cedar?

Something to ponder...

HighwayStar 442

Not against the law to be sick. But, if you have the Corona viruses. Sick or carrier. Rules of the health departments. Public safety. Would kick in and away you go to be taken to quarantine area. Or force to stay home in quarantine. And everyone you had contact with! See how this can get really out of hand. But the US has been caught with one's pants down. Hardly any testing! And I think it was 14 days before you are feeling sick. Its maybe all around already.

Just showed up in my mail; https://www.aarp.org/health/conditio...c%2fMxuw%3d%3d

tru-blue 442

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronaviru...d-19-concerns/

KW5413

In the meantime, Italy has locked down over a quarter of its population. No one leaves / enters that northern region of Milan and Venice. No one but, essential personnel go to work. 16 million people. No restaurants, bars, schools, retail, manufacturing...nothing. This is to remain in effect thru April 3rd...at least.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...d-c-u-n1152416

70W-32

And when people heard about the coming lockdown, they fled. This is what you have to worry about, pre-symptom individuals leaving quarantine and spreading it to new areas.

69HO43

Mass quarantine will never work. The virus doesn't understand or respect borders. In fact, mass quarantine may lead to even more concentrated infections as people cannot escape. Plus those that do, as in Italy's case, will just spread it around that much faster. It's not like there's a flashing light on people's foreheads saying "I'm a carrier".

Unfortunately, it's just going to have to run its course, and if you're in the way, hope you don't die.

Panic people are out there as well, and it amazes me that people are actually fighting and wanting to kill each other over toilet paper and such. Yet they don't actually implement the protocols that will better defend against getting the virus itself. Stupidity knows no bounds, either.

70W-32

Mother nature's way of thinning the herd?

HighwayStar 442

It worked in China locking down huge areas. They even cleaned their money in those area and locked it up for 14 days

Kennybill

Governor DeWine was on the local news. He said there were 9 possible cases but all tested negative. Now they have 5 more possible cases that they are testing for but there are zero cases of coronavirus in Ohio so far.
National news comes on and says, Ohio has 5 cases of coronavirus ​​​​. Hmmm.
https://www.wfmj.com/story/41866104/...on-coronavirus

Koda

These diseases highlight that the majority of the people are stupid AF and we allow them to be that way.

69HO43

How about we just quarantine Washington state? You think they'd go for that? You think anyone in the U.S. would go for that? But it doesn't matter now. It got to nearly every country on the planet already because the Chinese were idiots about jumping in front of this at the get-go instead of trying to act like they didn't know what was happening until weeks later. The point was that if you leave the side window open, it doesn't matter if you lock the front door. If it's to the east of you, it may also be to the west, north, and south. It will be in all the continental U.S. in a couple of months. Or probably sooner.

Italy's already screwed. They probably just slowed it down at best. You either have to take boot to the throat measures, or step back and let it run. There's no half-assing the response to something like this.

HighwayStar 442

Coronavirus may kill 1 to 4%. Hope I am wrong!

dukedkt442

I'm looking at a couple of months off, paid as per salary contract, due to the worry. Bring on the sniffles.

70W-32

We allow them? What are we supposed to do, their ******' stupid,you aren't gonna change that.

Daiv8or

What would the minority "smart" AF people do?