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Another argument against widespread testing is that it's a snapshot. We could test all 330 million Americans today, and that will tell us who has it today. But what about a week from today or a month from today? Are we going to test everyone every week or every two weeks?
No, spending resources on massive numbers of test kits is not the best use of those resources. We should spending the money on treating those who are sick (yes, more ventilators and masks and all the rest), isolating those who are not sick but the most vulnerable (the elderly and infirm), and letting the rest of the country get back to work before the economy is so far gone that it can't be revived.
I've seen predictions, and I hope they're wrong, that we could see 20 to 30% unemployment rates. Those are depression-era numbers. The highest unemployment rate ever recorded in this country was in 1933, when it reached 24.9%. We need to be doing as much to avoid that as we are doing to combat the virus. We have TWO enemies here. The virus, and the damage we're doing to ourselves to try to contain it. I think the jury is out as to which is worse.
Jaunty75, you keep justifying my use of the ignore function. I'm sure 45 loves you and your ilk.
Another thing occurs to me. If you're using the "ignore" function, how is it you were able to read my post? I don't think your ignore function is working very well. I'd get it looked at.
Another argument against widespread testing is that it's a snapshot. We could test all 330 million Americans today, and that will tell us who has it today. But what about a week from today or a month from today? Are we going to test everyone every week or every two weeks?
Earlier and wider spread testing would've kept the US ahead of the ball and allowed quicker identification of those infected (in the areas where the outbreak began, i.e.: Washington state) and gotten them isolated to prevent the initial spread of the virus. Delaying test capability as has been done not only gave the uneducated so-called "leaders" leeway to poo-poo the issue (spreading misinformation that is then followed by those spring breakers for example) and further delayed rolling out social separation policies which allowed the virus to spread further. Now that we are no longer ahead of the ball, we are behind the ball, and extreme measures must be taken to prevent everyone from getting the virus. The US needed to be on top of things like S. Korea, not arrogant like Italy.
Any attempt to compare COVID-19 infection and death rate numbers to the seasonal flu is inherently flawed and intentionally ignorant of the fact that we have not yet finished counting the impacts of COVID-19. Compare the numbers in a year and see where we stand. Meanwhile, these facts summarize the differences and why COVID-19 is a much higher level of concern than the flu:
1) COVID-19 is significantly more transmissible between humans than the flu
2) The death rate of COVID-19 is ~20X higher than the flu
3) Vaccinations exist for the flu, not so for COVID-19
Last edited by JohnnyBs68S; March 23rd, 2020 at 12:00 PM.
You guys are suffering from Cabin Fever. Do what they suggest, only you can protect your family and yourself. I lived through the 1957/58 Asian Flu Pandemic, around 100k Americans died. This isn't the first flu rodeo. I've never seen this response to a new strain. Most people are being very cautious. Every year since I can remember, we've had a "flu season." Thirty five to fifty thousands die every year and no one says much. We had the 2009 H1N1 and very little if any panic. I think the precautions the Governments are taking are good and I'm hopeful they will help. Only time will tell. Don't count on the Government to take your temperature and make you chicken soup. Read these numbers.
Any attempt to compare COVID-19 infection and death rate numbers to the seasonal flu is inherently flawed and intentionally ignorant of the fact that we have not yet finished counting the impacts of COVID-19. Compare the numbers in a year and see where we stand.
Agreed. But then you then post this in direct contradiction to the above:
Originally Posted by JohnnyBs68S
2) The death rate of COVID-19 is ~20X higher than the flu
Agreed. But then you then post this in direct contradiction to the above:
"~" = "about" although I probably should've used the words "number of deaths" rather than "death rates"
Check out this site at John Hopkins and use simple math to calculate the death rate in whatever region of the planet you so choose:
World wide: 4.4%
China: 4.0%
Italy: 9.5%
US: 1.3% << this is down from 2.3% last week, likely due to more testing that is being performed, however deaths in the US have just begun........
S. Korea: 1.2%
(these numbers are expected to vary slightly from day to day as the numbers change)
Seasonal flu: ~0.1% (widely sourced)
Sure, the death rate varies by region, because its a function of testing saturation and how well those infected are treated.
Last edited by JohnnyBs68S; March 23rd, 2020 at 01:09 PM.
"~" = "about" although I probably should've used the words "number of deaths" rather than "death rates"
Check out this site at John Hopkins and use simple math to calculate the death rate in whatever region of the planet you so choose:
World wide: 4.4%
China: 4.0%
Italy: 9.5%
US: 1.3% << this is down from 2.3% last week, likely due to more testing that is being performed, however deaths in the US have just begun........
S. Korea: 1.2%
(these numbers are expected to vary slightly from day to day as the numbers change)
Seasonal flu: ~0.1% (widely sourced)
Sure, the death rate varies by region, because its a function of testing saturation and how well those infected are treated.
what no one seems to understand is that once the hospitals are overwhelmed, the death rate will skyrocket. South Korea was able to slow the spread. Instead of one person infecting five, they lowered it to 2-3. Italy is at five. That’s exactly where the US is headed.
This is the research I follow. I was able to obtain an English copy last Friday (attachment). There exists three of the most highly qualified Blood Research Centers in the world (Nederlands, France & U.S.A). I worked @ the U.S.A. location for 15 years (BRI). I was an associate research scientist evaluating the empirical function of enzyme Phosphatidlyinositol-3 Kinase (PI3K). This enzyme occurs in every human cell & primarily involves transferring energy to selective enzymes which enable ions, proteins, nucleic acids, nucleosides, hormones & lipids to traverse the cell membrane. ACE-2 employs PI3K to function. Enough said about that.
This (attached) is the peer-reviewed historical literature evaluated during the initial outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 through 13 Mar 2020. It is continually being updated. Read the attached from the bottom>up to glean the historical perspective. The original publication is in French.
NOTEWORTHY: Early detection via CT scans correlated to COVID-19, SARS-CoV/MERS-CoV homologies, mutants/variants of SARS-CoV-2, identification of ACE-2 dimer pathway, transmission, case studies, antibody efficacy, Choloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine efficacy, numerous proposed theories/identifications of supportive case studies, epitopes, antigens, MHC markers, etc.
what no one seems to understand is that once the hospitals are overwhelmed, the death rate will skyrocket. South Korea was able to slow the spread. Instead of one person infecting five, they lowered it to 2-3. Italy is at five. That’s exactly where the US is headed.
The slope of the US curve is steeper that that of Italy now. That is what's troubling. Oh, and this is data from this morning. The US total is over 42K as of this writing. Only China and S. Korea have reversed the trend.
The slope of the US curve is steeper that that of Italy now. That is what's troubling. Oh, and this is data from this morning. The US total is over 42K as of this writing. Only China and S. Korea have reversed the trend.
Except this morning, Hong Kong is registering a second wave since they allowed the populace to start moving around freely.
I remember back in the "good old days" the "Bums/Hobos" use to drink Sterno, with mixed results. Here's a story about people who accomplished what the main goal was but not the way it turned out.
Sorry, I'm not that deep. (:•》 I got out to garage at 5am. I'm taking a tea break. I'm coming out of the "bunker" today. I'm risking my life at 11:45 am. I'm going to donate blood. I'm not telling my Daughter the Lawyer, she'd have a hissy fit if she knew. I'm wearing a N95 mask and gloves during the donation. I'm being proactive but somethings need to happen. Wish me luck!
Because they are NOT staying away. Look at the morons on spring break in Florida. The numbers don't lie. In South Korea, where the population density is much higher than it is here (thus increasing the likelihood of transfer), widespread testing and identification has allowed appropriate measures to be implemented, and the spread has pretty much been halted there. The rate of new cases in the US will surpass those in China by Wednesday. By this time next week, US cases will be close to 1,000,000. Do the math people.
The past 24 hours shows that your math is flawed. At the rate we are going we will not surpass China any time soon if at all.
Finland most likely is going to close/shut down our capital area by friday. So far 1 death Still.
Interesting news from Europe; Italy catched smugglers who tried to ship 2000 breathing machines to Greece- i quess that if public gets their hands to those smugglers, theyd lie death on a blink of an eye.
More interesting news; Russians and Chinese are helping Italy/ Europe big hand while USA does nothing. I realise that every country has their own problems and own citizens should come first, but i mention this since from big 3 ( USA, China, Russia), those 2 are going to reap the benefits of this big time. No more politics- just an mention of how things are forming here. Spain is quickly catching up with Italy on death-tolls- Italy maybe has started to get the pandemic on control- atleast the death-toll has turned down day by day since saturday.
More interesting news; Russians and Chinese are helping Italy/ Europe big hand while USA does nothing.
This is one of the biggest problems I have with the current administration, and this has nothing to do with COVID-19 because it's been going on for three years now. While the US has turned more and more towards isolationist ways, it has left a vacuum on the world leadership stage that Russia and China are ready to exploit. Ultimately this becomes a national security issue.
The past 24 hours shows that your math is flawed. At the rate we are going we will not surpass China any time soon if at all.
The U.S. WILL pass China like a big block (or small block) Olds passing a Volkswagen beetle that's running on only 3 of its 4 cylinders. The covid 19 pandemic is spreading rapidly and shows no signs of slowing.
The past 24 hours shows that your math is flawed. At the rate we are going we will not surpass China any time soon if at all.
I'm sorry, but on what world do you live? The US cases increased by over 10,000 in the last 24 hours. That's a jump from 32K to over 42K. In 24 hours.
As I write this, the US count is 46K and climbing. It DOUBLES every two-three days. China is at about 82K and holding. Geeze, do the math.
The past 24 hours shows that your math is flawed. At the rate we are going we will not surpass China any time soon if at all.
Don't base your math on just one 24 hour period. Right now there aren't enough test kits to test our "first line" health professionals. When more test kits become available, you will see the number of confirmed cases rise.
Originally Posted by joe_padavano
This is one of the biggest problems I have with the current administration, and this has nothing to do with COVID-19 because it's been going on for three years now. While the US has turned more and more towards isolationist ways, it has left a vacuum on the world leadership stage that Russia and China are ready to exploit. Ultimately this becomes a national security issue.
This has been very apparent. Macron and Angela Merkel have become the leaders of the "free world". Russia and China are having a field day.
Originally Posted by Bunser
The U.S. WILL pass China like a big block (or small block) Olds passing a Volkswagen beetle that's running on only 3 of its 4 cylinders. The covid 19 pandemic is spreading rapidly and shows no signs of slowing.
We will pass China, when enough test kits become available to test for the virus.
This tweet is just a repeat of a Fox News report, which came from an editorial in the Detroit News. This president is incapable of thinking for himself. He is choosing money over life.
Of course, today he tries to rewrite history by saying
“I’ve felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” "I've always viewed it as very serious.”
And you wonder why people have no confidence in the administration? Of course, he also insists that Mexico is paying for the wall.
My nephew and his wife are EMT's in NYC. I love and are very proud of him!!! He also keeps drinking the Kool-Aid. We just started talking to each other, after three years. He stop talking to me as I anti, you know who.
Wishes he had went to collage, as we all push him to. Not the best job in the world, just watch the movie "Bring out the dead". He tell me is very close to how it is.
He also think this will all past quickly. I fear for him, his wife and three children! And my bother and sister-in-law in there 70's, who are watching their children. He tells me they have few masks, gloves and protective gear. Being told to reused what they have a few times. The lies just keep coming and coming. from you know who. Just watch Gov Cuomo. Asking where are all the thing that, you know who. Said where delivered to all the city and states. Now fox has his VP lying, live on TV. I am sicking by these people!
The U.S. WILL pass China like a big block (or small block) Olds passing a Volkswagen beetle that's running on only 3 of its 4 cylinders. The covid 19 pandemic is spreading rapidly and shows no signs of slowing.
As of now, based on the last 2 day's of reporting, the growth rate (slope of the curve) is:
US: 9300 cases / day
Italy: 5150 cases / day
China: 100 cases / day
Based on the total number of cases and the differences in growth rates, the total cases in the US is on track to pass:
China in 3.8 days (3/28)
Italy in 4.2 days (3/28)
By Sunday the US will be WINNING this COVID-19 contest. Is the MAGA crowd tired of winning yet?
As of now, based on the last 2 day's of reporting, the growth rate (slope of the curve) is:
US: 9300 cases / day
Italy: 5150 cases / day
China: 100 cases / day
Based on the total number of cases and the differences in growth rates, the total cases in the US is on track to pass:
China in 3.8 days (3/28)
Italy in 4.2 days (3/28)
By Sunday the US will be WINNING this COVID-19 contest. Is the MAGA crowd tired of winning yet?
Unfortunately, the slope is increasing. As I write this at just before 1:00 EST, the US total is just under 50K. That's over 6K new cases so far today. We're on track to cross 55K total by tonight, so figure 70K by tomorrow night. I guess I was wrong, we won't pass China on Wed. It will be Thurs morning.
90% of what's in this thread has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with math.
I was doubting it all as early as the middle of last week but the numbers don't lie. Fortunately I don't live in a city. If you do you're in for a rude awaking if you get seriously sick from this. I haven't left my property in four days and won't until I need food. I'm fortunate to be able to productively work from home
This is a very good explanation of what's going on in NY. What's interesting is the rules for NYC are the same for those of us that live 5 hours away in the middle-of-no-where NY, thus we will probably have one of the lowest rates of transfer of the virus (plus almost everyone up here is taking it seriously and not going anywhere unless we have to)....
I recognize your sentiment and it is a warranted statement. I believe the crisis justifies the thread remain open - there is knowledge to be gained by numerous posts and discussions. It should remain w/in the constructs of the forum none-the-less.
It really is possible to maintain a non-political discussion. Let's strive to leave politics out of this discussion - PLEASE.
The Clubhouse Place to chat about whatever's on your mind - doesn't have to be car related. NO POLITICS OR RELIGIOUS DISCUSSION ALLOWED.
Sounds about right to me. Just one man's opinion, time will tell. Say a Prayer folks. We ALL need them, worldwide. Political, religious? Left, right? Ugg. That's my word for 2020.
Sometimes with a . Sometimes with a ! Or !! Good luck, God bless us everyone and stay safe out there.
HighwayStar 442 - Please STOP your condescending, arrogant, & enabling posts - including the posting of pictures of your vehicle which has NOTHING to add to this discussion regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. You're becoming an instigator and your behavior is not appreciated (by me - to say the least). Post pictures of your vehicle to the appropriate thread. Thank You.
May i ask that since when youve been the forum police? Im aswell disgusted about your style to quote people who post something youve posted earlier, and note them about that like its your right and accomplishment of posting that one link or tidbit of info someone didnt notice was already posted. Forums for starters are for discussion. And this site has already chosen moderators, let them decide what is appropriate or not- if you want you can always snitch the post to moderators and let them decide of actions.
Sounds about right to me. Just one man's opinion, time will tell. Say a Prayer folks. We ALL need them, worldwide. Political, religious? Left, right? Ugg. That's my word for 2020.
Sometimes with a . Sometimes with a ! Or !! Good luck, God bless us everyone and stay safe out there.
Yes, having been praying harder than normal. Especially for EMT and all the others in health care workers. Who may having an especially hard time ahead.
March 23rd, 2020, 10:54 AM
