When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.
I have no quibble with any of your analysis, but you're talking about a specific case, yourself, not the average across the car-buying and owning public.
Anyone can come up with any cost-per-mile amount they want if they make the appropriate assumptions or live their life a certain way. (Not everyone can live in Indiana, for example.) But that won't be the average cost across 300 million Americans living in all 50 states and exposed to all different kinds of car cost environments.
To determine whether or not a driverless car society is economically feasible, one has to determine the cost of that society spread over all its members just the way the cost of car ownership today has to be spread across all members of today's society, and that includes people who can do it for 10 cents per mile, those who can't do it for less than $1.00 per mile, and everyone in between.
Indeed. I said I could operate a car for 20 cents a mile. Turns out it's 23. I made no claim about the general public.
What about ranchers, farmers, businesses that need pickup trucks to haul, trailers. Landscaping companys. I dont see how these can be replaced by auto self driven vehicles. And so many more that i didnt mention.
What about ranchers, farmers, businesses that need pickup trucks to haul, trailers. Landscaping companys. I dont see how these can be replaced by auto self driven vehicles. And so many more that i didnt mention.
x2
Americans are addicted to pick-ups. Especially in my part of the country. I guess it could be due to the chicken tax (but that's another can of worms).
I'm just guessing here but I'd wager that in 20 years, all pickup trucks will be manufactured to run on BD. The gasoline engine will be a thing of the past and left to owners of classics like we drive. Sure it will still be available but at what cost? $5/gallon? $8/gallon? And I'm sure like the luxury car tax, we will be paying something similar for the wear and tear we are adding to America's old roadbeds with the rumblings of our Michigan Mafia sleds.
I'm just guessing here but I'd wager that in 20 years, all pickup trucks will be manufactured to run on BD. The gasoline engine will be a thing of the past and left to owners of classics like we drive. Sure it will still be available but at what cost? $5/gallon? $8/gallon? And I'm sure like the luxury car tax, we will be paying something similar for the wear and tear we are adding to America's old roadbeds with the rumblings of our Michigan Mafia sleds.
Having lived through similar predictions in the 1970s, I'll not be holding my breath.
It will be interesting. Rural areas will be the last to see it. I drive down 10 miles of unmark road to get to work. About a mile of which 1 1/2 cars wide making a person pull over to let the other go by. Also living in a farm area what about tractors and combines in the road? Still lots to figure out.
About a mile of which 1 1/2 cars wide making a person pull over to let the other go by.
The technology is young. In a few years, these cars will be able to see the road as well as you can, and use a communication protocol to communicate with the other car and decide who will pull over, or else have neither pull over, and pass each other with 1" of clearance without hesitating.
Originally Posted by lshlsh2
Also living in a farm area what about tractors and combines in the road?
On the road, it may not be economically useful to have them automatically driven, but they've been driven automatically (mostly using GPS) for years now while working in the fields. These machines can go back and forth, or around in circles (depending on the irrigation scheme) for miles and miles, running perfectly straight and true, all day long, on their own.
I'm not surprised to see BMW leading the way. Would a driver with a $120k plus BMW M5 or 6 series want an autonomous car? I guess if they can't market it in those platforms they will just put it in the 7 series.
i laugh at all these idiot uber driver making little in comparision to the wear and tear they are putting on their cars only to put more money in ubers coffers to advance their driverless cars. these people are helping to put themselves out of business. uber has a test track half a mile from my house. my uncle encountered one of their cars testing on the street and got it to stop... and malfunction. lol
Location: I moved to pittsburgh so I can be near Primantis
Posts: 405
Originally Posted by joe_padavano
Having lived through similar predictions in the 1970s, I'll not be holding my breath.
X2
This august, 30 years ago I was hired by IBM to program a mainframe OS and was told at orientation that we had 5 years, 10 tops, of product life left before it would be replaced. Every one of you use it nearly daily and we just got the latest mainframe version installed....
Location: I moved to pittsburgh so I can be near Primantis
Posts: 405
Originally Posted by Olds64
I wonder how much of a future diesel has in our nation. Especially after the VW scandal.
As the EPA mulls over the proposed fix (2/17 due date) and VWs settlement (I am waiting for my check), they say diesel trucks (pickups are next) because they also jimmy the results.
Big trucks also fail, but the OEMs negotiated a pre-settlement where a $1500 penalty is paid to the EPA on each sale to cover it and buried in the $100K purchase price. It may be that diesel is on borrowed time and the other day when ford announced the scrapping of a $7B plant in mexico it coincided with a hybrid F150, Mustang and full electric car all on the road by 2020.
It won't be long before you don't interact with a human at all at fast food restaurants. Y
GOOD..im tired of tatted up pierced up freaks with no communication skills calling me "dude" anyway...sooner the better...
EDIT:
(no offence to people with either tats or piercings...i just dont understand people today..and the disrespect you get from them...we all started working somewhere)
GOOD..im tired of tatted up pierced up freaks with no communication skills calling me "dude" anyway...sooner the better...
EDIT:
(no offence to people with either tats or piercings...i just dont understand people today..and the disrespect you get from them...we all started working somewhere)
I think the op is thinking George Jetson stuff robot maids fixing your food is around the corner. Good grief I doubt all these things will be wide spread in twnety years. Maybe common place in the next 75 years but why would i care. After all i will be six feet under way before that.
It won't be long before you don't interact with a human at all at fast food restaurants.
That was piloted at one of the food joints near my workplace about 10 years ago. There was an automated kiosk as well as a regular counter, and folks were taking opinion surveys from customers to see how it was received. Apparently not very well as that joint still has a regular counter with people manning it.
I don't see the automated kiosks as your only choice in the near future. Have you seen people try to self check out of the grocery store?
And THOSE people are ALWAYS right in front of me!
Actually, I usually avoid the self-check aisles because either the bottle of wine sets off the alarms that require an override to check my ID or the stupid system won't register when I put the magazine on the belt or some similar failure.
That was piloted at one of the food joints near my workplace about 10 years ago. There was an automated kiosk as well as a regular counter, and folks were taking opinion surveys from customers to see how it was received. Apparently not very well as that joint still has a regular counter with people manning it.
Two comments:
1. This was 10 years ago. Technology is different now.
2. It may not matter how well people take it. This is as much being driven by high labor costs as anything else. Minimum wages are rising all over the country, often to the point where entry-level labor costs more than the value it adds, and that leads to automation.
Yeah, technology is different but the automated ordering kiosk isn't. There's still no desire for this from the general public.
You may be correct that it gets forced upon the unwilling, just like so many other things.
Here are some random musings:
How will an automated call-up vehicle handle the soccer/football coach who has to bring a ton of large bulky equipment to the practice field? Then pack up and haul butt if the weather suddenly turns bad?
Or the fisherman who needs to get all of his gear and his boat to the water? And then back home again?
Or the hunter who needs to get out to the middle of nowhere on primitive roads/trails and then back again? I can envision a no firearms policy with some vehicle service companies.
How about the mountain bikers / snow skiers / whatever who bring large equipment to remote areas and back?
I've used uber and it has taken longer for the vehicle to show up that it would take me to drive myself to my destination. I see this as an inconvenience that many will not tolerate. We as a society are not overly patient.
Last edited by Fun71; January 7th, 2017 at 07:33 PM.
How will an automated call-up vehicle handle the soccer/football coach who has to bring a ton of large bulky equipment to the practice field? Then pack up and haul butt if the weather suddenly turns bad?
Or the fisherman who needs to get all of his gear and his boat to the water? And then back home again?
Or the hunter who needs to get out to the middle of nowhere on primitive roads/trails and then back again? I can envision a no firearms policy with some vehicle service companies.
How about the mountain bikers / snow skiers / whatever who bring large equipment to remote areas and back?
There's nothing that says that the only type of self-driving vehicle that you can call is going to be a Chevette. You need an SUV, you call an SUV. Need a pickup truck, you call a pickup truck.
Plus, it's certainly reasonable that society won't be 100.000% self-driving, non-private owned cars. There will still be some privately-owned vehicles for special circumstances. But where you used to own two cars, one a commuter vehicle and the other a family hauler, you'll now own one--just the family hauler. Eventually, you probably won't own that one, either. Just summon a mini-van when you need one. Overall, for the most part, self-driving vehicles will replace privately-owned cars. But there will likely always be some exceptions.
Originally Posted by Fun71
I've used uber and it has taken longer for the vehicle to show up that it would take me to drive myself to my destination. I see this as an inconvenience that many will not tolerate. We as a society are not overly patient.
Uber is not a good comparison. Those are human-driven vehicles, privately-owned by people who agree to drive for Uber and subject to the whims and foibles of those drivers. It would be something altogether different when the vehicles are automated and provided by a public transit service like buses and taxi cabs are now.
Uber is not a good comparison. Those are human-driven vehicles, privately-owned by people who agree to drive for Uber and subject to the whims and foibles of those drivers. It would be something altogether different when the vehicles are automated and provided by a public transit service like buses and taxi cabs are now.
ubers plan is exactly that, to go driverless. their test track is near my house..like 1/2. its basically streets and stop lights. i laugh at the people beating their cars up everyday to make money for a company thats working to get rid of them.
I watched Minority Report this weekend (I was on a Philip K. Dick binge). I think automated cars like the ones we see in science fiction will stay science fiction until long after we are all dead.
And why does this report carry any more credibility than the predictions of flying cars that date to the 1950s? I'm still waiting for THOSE (yeah, I'm aware that Uber thinks they will have one shortly. Hold your breath...)
This article shows that CA is at least actively trying to incorporate driverless cars on their highways. The other article is pretty fanciful. Driverless cars are coming, I just don't know how long it will take them to be a part of everyone's lives.
This article shows that CA is at least actively trying to incorporate driverless cars on their highways. The other article is pretty fanciful. Driverless cars are coming, I just don't know how long it will take them to be a part of everyone's lives.
I regularly have to deal with safety-critical software in the aerospace world. Suffice to say that I have not seen any self driving car companies with anywhere near the level of software test and configuration control rigor that we use in aerospace. That should scare you.
I'm just guessing here but I'd wager that in 20 years, all pickup trucks will be manufactured to run on BD. The gasoline engine will be a thing of the past and left to owners of classics like we drive. Sure it will still be available but at what cost? $5/gallon? $8/gallon? And I'm sure like the luxury car tax, we will be paying something similar for the wear and tear we are adding to America's old roadbeds with the rumblings of our Michigan Mafia sleds.
Somehow , many forget that in 20 years if vehicles move more toward other fuels/power ,say like electric.. That your power will go up per kw hour.. big time.. As the System to keep up with the demand needs hugely costly updating, to keep up with the demands now. never mind adding charging a fleet of vehicles.. Then , you don't think the fed and states are just going to allow the loss of funds from fuel taxes to happen. So the taxes on electric will go up.. for road taxes and you'll get hit with all your power used not just what you used to recharge.. And most likely a move to a mileage based tax/fee..
I don't see the computer driven vehicles taking over . This tech sounds good, but once it gets used more and they get into wrecks more and more.. people will think about that . And that CAN and Will have an effect on it's use..
Think about this. If you've used a nav. system how many times have they sent you into a closed road/ bridge/ or the wrong way.. This is the same things that will be driving the vehicles..
Forget about it in snow..
GOOD..im tired of tatted up pierced up freaks with no communication skills calling me "dude" anyway...sooner the better...
EDIT:
(no offence to people with either tats or piercings...i just dont understand people today..and the disrespect you get from them...we all started working somewhere)
I'm sure some said the same about the long hair hippy's of your time also..
Sad that those that had that happen to them have such short memories..
This post is from a tatt free and no extra holes in body. human..
This article shows that CA is at least actively trying to incorporate driverless cars on their highways. The other article is pretty fanciful. Driverless cars are coming, I just don't know how long it will take them to be a part of everyone's lives.
Driverless cars will be the hoolagian's play things..
I see a bunch of dopes that are riding in these getting the "pit" spin.. or the
Russian insurance scam of, pull in front of and slam on brakes..
Or better yet.. playing chess, to see what the computer picks , does it hit the car to it's left or the human in the road to it's right.. MACHINES HAVE NO CONSCIENCE
"NM 156"
Uniform printout reads end of line
Protect code intact leaves little time
Erratic surveys, free thinking not allowed
My hands shake, my push buttons silence
The outside crowd
One world government has outlawed war among nations
Now social control requires population termination
Have we come too far
To turn around
Does emotion hold the key
Is logic just a synonym for
This savagery, disguised in
Forgotten lost memory
Microchip logic
have we no more thought
"Is this wrong" I enter
Answers sought
Punch, punch, punch, transfer this data
Into code. Wide eyes watch my
Number 156 is shown
Created from past life to perform
Illicit function, I fail this conscious
Madness I man/machine imperfection
Have we come too far
To turn around
Does emotion hold the key
Is logic just a synonym for
This savagery, disguised in
Forgotten lost memory
End of line
Why the sad face..
There are still people into 1900 cars and up.. no matter what new technology comes along there will always be a group into the older vehicles..
I think the fad of being driven around will get old ..
Many may not be able to as they may get car sick.. lol
January 3rd, 2017, 05:27 PM
