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Sad to say, but with the constant increases in computer processing power and intercommunication capacity, the self-driving thing is likely inevitable and will probably completely displace manual driving sooner or later.
From: I moved to pittsburgh so I can be near Primantis
The largest group of buyers of vinyl in my store is 20-30-somethings. Because...they never heard it before until recently.
We still ride horses somewhere, we still sail ships. They will drive cars.
And lets face it, ILS landings have been a fact for over 20 years and the pilot is STILL hands on, and this is with no traffic and strict guidelines. All it takes is one Uber to graze aunt Methel and the kaybosh will be put on that one.
Wishful thinking by a technogeek with a vested $$$ interest in such technology becoming mainstream.
Having been at the controls of both fossil and nuke powerplants most of my life I can assure you that automatic works well... MOST of the time. It's when it doesn't that you need a capable person at the controls. That holds true for driverless automobiles too.
Then again, as pointed out, a vast majority of drivers have no business behind the wheel of any automobile. Get rid of the electronic distractions and odds are driving skills will improve. I'm a firm believer that any electronic communication device should be required to have capability to disable once the door of a car shuts with someone in the driver's seat.
The side blind spot will no longer be a concern with blind spot warning sensors to be standard on all vehicles next year, along with back-up cameras.
Seems the more they oversee and restrict new drivers the worst they are getting - with graduated driver licenses, additional penalties, and even requiring red license plate decals in some states. (Smart, place a red decal on the license plates of new teen drivers, as wanted by some law enforcement, to alert them a teen driver might be operating the vehicle - why not just place a beacon on the car for predators to see.)
New drivers are terrified to go to a parking lot or other safe area to try evasive maneuvers because of these new laws, resulting in drivers that only know how to stand on the brakes and say a prayer. They never learn a vehicle's limits or how work the brake and gas in different situations.
Glad my kids learned how to control a skid, to drive around a situation, drive in snow/ice, and other actions not taught by driving schools or motor vehicles. Seen many new drivers that were never taught these basics ending up in an incident that could had been avoided.
Wait until cars are required to "speak" with each other.....
Last edited by anthonyP; Dec 31, 2016 at 06:31 PM.
Wishful thinking by a technogeek with a vested $$$ interest in such technology becoming mainstream.
Having been at the controls of both fossil and nuke powerplants most of my life I can assure you that automatic works well... MOST of the time. It's when it doesn't that you need a capable person at the controls. That holds true for driverless automobiles too.
^^^THIS. I've noted previously that I have experience with the rigorous of testing and configuration control that goes in to safety critical software in the aerospace world. I have yet to see a similar amount of rigor in the automotive world. The biggest downside to these partially-autonomous vehicles is the over-reliance on the autonomy and corresponding reduction in driver skill. The FAA has pointed out repeatedly that pilot skills are declining due to over-reliance on autopilot. Commercial pilots are at least two orders of magnitude better trained than drivers on U.S. roads. Do the math.
I feel sorry for the Father of a Daughter in 25 years. Imagine seeing your Daughter getting into the back seat with her prom date as the car drives away.
I feel sorry for the Father of a Daughter in 25 years. Imagine seeing your Daughter getting into the back seat with her prom date as the car drives away.
As opposed to today when they climb into the back of a limo that the parents paid for? Heck, having to drive my own car to the prom didn't stop ME!
Speaking of that, have y'all noticed how new cars are being designed with ever larger blind spots?
Our Challenger has bad blind spots when changing lanes, but they stretched a 40 year old design onto a modern chassis. A lot of new vehicles have cameras and bumper sensors, may as well have the side ones too.
Today cars have too many high tech distractions built in. They need to go back to the basics and I bet the amount of accidents would drop dramatically.
Today cars have too many high tech distractions built in. They need to go back to the basics and I bet the amount of accidents would drop dramatically.
Tougher licensing tests would make the number of accidents drop even more dramatically. Unfortunately, since most voters are idiots (and thus would fail the new test), this will never be passed.
I don't know Joe, it may be a future financial thing. With interest rates finally going up, affording a $30k+ vehicle may get a very tough. Manufacturers may have reduce the amount of crap in cars just to be able to sell them. The other option is a 30 year mortgage on vehicles.
The other option is a 30 year mortgage on vehicles.
^^^THIS. Expect to see even longer financing periods. The automakers sell more expensive cars (which have higher profits) and the finance companies make more profit on the longer loans. Not a problem for me - I've never had a car loan in my life. I've only ever bought one vehicle brand new anyway.
hah a new car with all those electronics lasting 30 yrs,yeah right.
as for the 66-67 a bodies.i have had one for 37 yrs and i havent had an issue with the c pillar being much of a blind spot,what i don't like about the new cars is the huge a pillars,there have been numerous times in my suburban that i have missed seeing cars that were hidden behind the pass side a pillar when pulling out from stop signs.and the back windows are getting smaller and higher up no wonder they need backup cameras.
This really bothers me deeply to how quickly technology advances, don't get me wrong I appreciate technology as to I see it and work it advantageous to me cause I use it everyday. Scenario? Fast forward, I purchase a vehicle that can drive itself. It malfunctions, goes into limp mode. So now I have to drive this car. Or, say it just completely stalls and doesn't move at all. It's probably going to have to go straight to a dealer and I can't wait to see what my hourly charge is going to be and then they come out and say your battery was bad, well you can't just change a battery by yourself and expect your vehicle to operate properly because the dealer needs to reconfigure the auto drive programming. Kind of like the electric fuel pump, sometimes they just die and leave you stranded leaving you stranded and making it difficult for the do it yourself repairs. So how many excruciating hours and dollars are going to be invested into these throwaway vehicles? I feel sorry for the next generation of millennials who will no longer see FM radio and will have to reboot a leisure related device or devices every single day or have to be body scanned just to walk into a favorite sit down or carry out restaurant or movie theatre if they are still around. How many more years will it be until my Oldsmobile has no relevance to be road safe because it needs to abide by New Year revised state safety requirements? Also, how well will the self driving vehicles work when the owners neglect preventive maintenance such as brakes, steering components, tires etc? I guess the vehicles will have to over-compensate for stupidity! I think I just answered my questions.
Just a thought.
Sean
This really bothers me deeply to how quickly technology advances... Just a thought.
You neglect one important detail:
The current idea is that the manufacturers will run their own taxi services, either directly or through intermediaries (like Über), rather than have cars be privately owned.
If there is a mechanical problem en route, the company will just dispatch a new car.
All maintenance and repairs will be performed by the manufacturer or its designee.
[QUOTE=MDchanic;979477]You neglect one important detail:
The current idea is that the manufacturers will run their own taxi services, either directly or through intermediaries (like Über), rather than have cars be privately owned.
If there is a mechanical problem en route, the company will just dispatch a new car
That's funny, I can't wait for a dealer dispatch an Uber coach to pick me up! And, how many times have you asked for a loaner car, you know there's always one sitting waiting for your phone call. They run taxi services now, they call them porters and you will be waiting in line for them.
Sean
Last edited by seansolds; Jan 1, 2017 at 09:53 PM.
Maybe this should have been an entire new thread..I understand what you are trying to convey Eric. Adding to this, our dealerships have lost the fiduciary responsibility and integrity to the consumer, the more technology they engineer into these vehicles is just more of an out of reach expense the average household can't afford and equally the possibility of more for mechanical and electrical to go wrong. These days people have to accept what is given to us like it or not. Maybe higher end dealerships like Mercedes Benz and Jaguar take care of the consumer. I rarely hear of issues with there vehicles, probably because I can't afford a new one.
I could get an extra hours sleep if the car drove itself to work haha, maybe it will perk a coffee for me as well once it parks itself at the shop. Put-r-ther.
The current idea is that the manufacturers will run their own taxi services, either directly or through intermediaries (like Über), rather than have cars be privately owned.
If there is a mechanical problem en route, the company will just dispatch a new car.
All maintenance and repairs will be performed by the manufacturer or its designee.
The problems that you describe are not relevant.
- Eric
Eric,
IMO:That'll work until:
1. A passenger gets into a vehicle that has vomit on the floor. Uber drivers are already experiencing the issues associated with carrying drunks.
2. The vehicle fails to arrive or arrives late. And let's not kid ourselves. There will be a tight margin in the number of vehicles available to move us just as there is currently a tight margin in the number of cashiers available at Walmart to help us at check out time. Business 101.
3. The vehicles start to exceed their service life and start suffering failures. The companies must get the most out of the service life of the vehicles in order to maintain high profit margins. Again, Basic Business 101
4. The vehicles start getting hacked into. It's already happening.
5. Programming errors sending passengers to the wrong destinations. Scary
6. Passenger fees raise at a rate higher than inflation or wages. Monopolies will extort the consumer. Look at the Epipen for an example of extortion by a medical company selling a technology created by the government at tax payer expense.
7. Automation will push a lot of people out of the labor force. How will that effect profits? Smaller work force equals fewer consumers.
The idea of automation works great on paper. But capitalization will have an affect on it. We recently saw thousands of people stranded by an airline due to issues with the airline's computer systems. The airline was using antiquated computer systems in order to maintain or increase their profit margins.
And: I wonder how automation will work in the future. If robots build the cars and the cars drive us around. What is there left for us to do?
Yes, automation will happen. I just wonder what the end effect will be on society.
1. A passenger gets into a vehicle that has vomit on the floor.
This is the reality of driving a cab (or a limo). Every cab driver has a bottle of cleaner and several rolls of paper towels in the trunk.
Because of this, I would imagine that the companies will have in-car cameras and a way of ascertaining fairly accurately whether someone has puked, and will redirect to a contracted cleaning station immediately after (and charge the customer's card for the appropriate cleaning fee).
Originally Posted by Olds442redberet
2. The vehicle fails to arrive or arrives late...
3. The vehicles start to exceed their service life and start suffering failures...
4. The vehicles start getting hacked into...
5. Programming errors sending passengers to the wrong destinations...
6. Passenger fees raise at a rate higher than inflation or wages...
7. Automation will push a lot of people out of the labor force...
Hey, I never said I liked the idea, only that it was the idea that the car companies were working under.
All of these things will happen, companies will be competing for customers, and, presumably, some will sort out into the "Wal-Mart" part of the market, while others cater to the "Bergdorf-Goodman" crowd.
Originally Posted by Olds442redberet
If robots build the cars and the cars drive us around. What is there left for us to do?
We see it already, Tom: Shoot heroin.
Everybody in all of the hollowed-out formerly industrial towns is doing it.
Around here it's Biddeford, Sanford, Lewiston, Rochester, Somersworth, Lowell, and Manchester, among many others. I'm sure you could find a number of towns near you with huge factories with empty parking lots and cold smokestacks, and the locals lolling around in filthy apartments, stoned out of their minds, while their kids poke through the cabinets looking for dinner.
If we can't keep our country productive and our people employed, it's all over, and since we've clearly already failed at both of those things, the countdown has begun. The people who own the industries work relentlessly to cut the costs of their products, both by increasing mechanization and by moving production overseas, both of which cost us our jobs. Meanwhile, the owners get richer and richer, as the workers get poorer and poorer. Sooner or later, as you noted, there are not enough people gainfully employed to buy the owners' products, and the system breaks down. It's just a matter of time now.
Automated vehicles already exist, and are used in controlled, closed, courses. Automated vehicles do not do well on standard US roads and infrastructure as it was not designed for them. By "well" I mean that it is easy for them to handle it, not that they can't do it at all. Example, an embedded wire down the center of the lane would keep all robot cars dead nuts centered in lane. They stay centered now by a lot of cameras, sure, it works, but it's not a rigorous solution by the standards of engineering.
What I foresee happening is special lanes on interstates, like HOV lanes, that are setup with centralized traffic control that you would get into the lane, establish uplink with the city's control, and have it work with your car to drive you to where you wanted to leave the lane and re-establish manual control.
Manual control will always be there until all roads are made to some "robot car" standard. I wonder if the Google car has ever gone off pavement? Do they even have dirt roads in Kalifornia?
If autonomous cars are so close to being commonplace, then why haven't we already solved the problem of autonomous drones? The drone problem is much easier (there's no risk of a child running out in front of one) and you don't have to worry about snow covering the lines on the road.
The difference is that the FAA has a long history of regulatory actions based on lessons-learned from many people killed in plane crashes. There currently is no similar central regulatory organization for autonomous cars. Wait until Tesla kills a few more people, then watch the bureaucrats (and regulations) pile on.
. Wait until Tesla kills a few more people, then watch the bureaucrats (and regulations) pile on.
You're right.
I don't look forward to seeing self driving cars on the road every where.
Actually, I feel more and more like my father. He calls fuel injection, ABS and distributorless ignition BS. For me that is standard fare. What I fear is automatic braking, lane departure technology and autonomous cars.
I don't look forward to seeing self driving cars on the road every where.
Actually, I feel more and more like my father. He calls fuel injection, ABS and distributorless ignition BS. For me that is standard fare. What I fear is automatic braking, lane departure technology and autonomous cars.
Every one of these technologies means less and less skilled drivers. I'm personally on a crusade to rid myself of computerized autos. Dumped the 2002 Volvo and now the only one I have is the 1999 Chevy truck. Yeah, I've got two CCC 307s, but those ECUs are so limited in capability that they barely count.
Every car now has TPMS and a constantly-illuminated light on the dash (and expensive tire changes) because Explorer owners were too lazy to check their tire pressure. Every car now has a backup camera because American drivers are too fat and lazy to look over their shoulders when backing up. Sorry, but I don't want any of it.
Every car I drive has traction control and anti-lock brakes. It's a clever, portable system called "my right foot". It's amazing - if I sense the brakes locking up, I ease up on the pedal.
If I sense the rear tires spinning, I ease up on the accelerator (or don't, as I see fit ).
Actually, I feel more and more like my father. He calls fuel injection, ABS and distributorless ignition BS. For me that is standard fare. What I fear is automatic braking, lane departure technology and autonomous cars.
Back when the horseless carriage was first introduced, many people were scared of them, calling them "devil wagons" and worrying about them scaring their horses. Even the outfits that the first drivers wore, with their leather helmets and big goggles (as there were no windshields) frightened people. All of the same doom-and-gloom predictions we're hearing now about self-driving cars were made about the car itself back then. But things change.
Eventually, technology will advance, self-driving cars will become as common as human-driven cars are today, and, at some point down the line, we'll look back at the silliness of those who feared self-driving cars just as we now look back at the silliness of those feared the horseless carriage.
All of the same doom-and-gloom predictions we're hearing now about self-driving cars were made about the car itself back then. But things change.
x2
I heard that the public before WW II said having a radio in a car would cause accidents and distractions. Now you probably couldn't even buy a fleet vehicle without a radio.
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