61reoldsman

This forum got me thinking as to what would the people who designed and built our beloved Oldsmobiles would think as we approach 50-60 plus years old for a lot of the vehicles we spend time to preserve and enjoy .But I wonder if a life expectency was build into these vehicles from the time they were just a thought in a designers mind to the actual rolling chassis of metal ,glass and rubber?
Was that expectancy 10yrs ?20yrs ?,probably GM would figure that around that time people would be looking at them falling apart from lack of maintenance and preservation or overuse or misuse, so then each car could be replaced by a more modern design with more creature comforts and bells and whistles to amaze us ,but not much more life than the previous version. BUT....does a 2013 model have a longer life expectancy because of our advances in materials and build quality or is it the same as 1970 ? Is it 10-20 yrs and we're looking at another newer model ?Are they truly longer lasting ?
My one question though ,will our kids be doing the same thing as us in 50 years ,trying to maintain and preserve one of these modern vehicle to it's factory specs or will these modern cars become just another Iphone or Blackberry?..Use it up and discard it? Just a thought....thnx

Octania

Everything is going use & discard, not even serviceable
Undersize bearings, I was told, are not available for the Northstar V8
Head bolts not re-usable.

There are always a few who will resist and rebuild the thing they love, of course.
Re-power as necessary, etc.

OLD SKL 69

Body and undercarriage rust corrosion advances are better today than it was 20-30 years ago so that should be an improvement. All of the electronics though, that is another story. I can see major issues with that and the suport to keep it going.

I never had issues with buying a used car for daily driving, but most of the ones I see today are trashed. Most people don't take care of their cars that well anymore, unless its something special like a Camaro, Corvette, Challenger, etc.

1970cs

According to the reports, 13 years is the average of modern vehicles. If memory serves that Joe Padavano had some stats. by decade of age, can't recall the threads title. If I recall correctly by 20 years that only 10-13% are still registered.

Pat

Lady72nRob71

I would be more worried about the lifespan of the electronics. The newer the car the more sophisticated and smaller the electronics are. Given the environment they are in, failure is inevitable, especially with all the surface mount stuff. And no IC or cap replacement either - got to buy the whole module. And more and more parts have to be programmed before installation - who will keep up with all that? I guess for a price anything is repairable, but what will people be willing to spend? It will be cost prohibitive for the aftermarket to make such expensive parts for 30 year old cars.

And plastic deteriorates and breaks after 10-15 years, so there will be lots of failures there, too.

Aron Nance

Have a good friend that owns/operates a repair facility that cares for all our cars. Yesterday he picked up at 2002 Ford pick-up that he has spent countless hours on (tracing 200 wire sets for breaks 3 times); problem: dome light stayed on and ran the battery down. Took it to the Ford dealer, and they said IF the owner would pay the air fare, room and board, and $185/an/hour for Ford tech to come in from Detroit, they might be able to fix it. Evidently the 2002-2004 dome light circuit goes through 3 computers, and is a very common problem. Out of warranty, or course. Poor owner has huge bill, and truck isn't fixed. Think my friend is just going to run another circuit to the dome light and eliminate the original. Stupid design, sounds like.

oldcutlass

Engineered obsolescence is what is going on today. I don't see that many cars in the future being cared for as our generation did. There is really no wow factor in it. We live in a disposable society.

Cars today can generally do 250k miles on an engine, however the car starts to really deteriorate before that.

Olds64

My 71 98 has less than 100k miles on it after 40+ years. My 2011 Ford Flex already has over 40k miles on it and my wife and I bought it with 4 miles.

I would be willing to replace my Ford Flex around 60k miles. Everythings is disposable today.

61reoldsman

I doubt that our kids are going to be able to afford the parts to replace on these cars in the future,not to mention if they'll even be available !This generation seems to have the mindset that if it doesn't work throw it out and buy another one ,I can't tell ya how many phones my oldest has gone through ,7-8 ?and he's only 19!The auto manufacturers must know from statistics that society is at that point now and they'll just design a vehicle for a limited life span and then come up with a newer model asap.I can see alot of these vehicles heading to the scrap heap or be recycled into inordinate objects .But on the other hand I do think some of the performance cars like the Mustang,Camaro,Challenger and Vette will have a following in the future ,but again will they be able to afford to fix them up ?Time will tell,I guess we as hobbyist will just pass our cars onto our kids to enjoy ,hopefully!

redoldsman

I had a 99 Expedition that had 168,000 miles on it when it was totaled in July. Some guy tee boned by daughter on the right rear wheel. The only thing it needed was a heater core replacement. I had to have some coil pacs replaced at about 95,000 miles and the AC compressor replaced last year and that was about all that was ever done to it. It did not burn or leak any oil and still ran great. It was probably one of the best vehicles I ever owned. Olds64 I have a 2010 Flex with a little over 44,000 miles on it and I plan on driving it way past 100,000 miles.

Olds64

Yeah, my wife's Flex is a great car. I don't doubt it will run for many more miles. I just figured we would try to sell it before it got too many miles on it. We'll just have to see, I'm still in the 'Stan and she loves it. I just hope she can stop running into things. I think I need to invest in "old lady" side whiskers for her Flex (and my wife isn't even old).

Jedidiah

Too much plastic to have a long life expectancy.
Heres an example of rather stupid use of plastic parts. The e in e36 stands for "endless money pit." On BMWs, they have plastic hoses for cooling lines under the plastic intake manifold. I would imagine after about 10 years when plastic starts to become brittle and crack, that would leave you with an expensive repair bill. They also use this stupid lower radiator hose that is molded into a plastic adapter that seals to the radiator with an o-ring rather than just keeping things simple and using clamps. When you have to replace the thing, you have to order the entire assembly instead of just a hose.
I don't understand urethane bumpers. They're called "bumpers" for a reason; they're not supposed to disintegrate when they get bumped.
Simple parts like shock absorbers are also incredibly expensive on modern cars. The front shock absorbers for a Lexus GX470 are like $300 each, no-one makes them except Lexus. The rear ones are like $600 each.
My dad's boss has a nice looking Mercedes, but he complains all the time about post-warranty maintenance. Diagnostic tests are a nightmare apparently.
Its not just luxury cars that are stupidly designed either, My friend's new Challenger (v6) doesn't even have a transmission dipstick; you have to take to the dealer just to check your fluids!

Allan R

Personally I think the life expectancy of any car is dependent on how well it's looked after and where it lives. My wife's 96 Saturn lives in my garage and still looks like the day it was bought new off the showroom. Only thing it's ever needed was a new alt and idler tensioner.

My 07 Sonata lives outside but so far it's doing really well and I expect it to last at least another 10-15 years; maybe more.

66-3X2 442

You need to take in consideration the government mandate for fuel mileage. The best way to increase mileage is make cars lighter along with other things. My personal opinion is cars are better than they have ever been and if they are maintained correctly,they will last for long periods of time. We drive more now than the old days,so these modern cars hold up providing you get a good brand to begin with.

Allan R

Agree with the first part. Not sure if we actually drive more today though.
On a lease car in 72 the average free miles was 20K/year. Now it's down to 12K before extra mileage charges. With the higher costs of fuel and mtce it's my opinion that driving is actually down somewhat on a national level. Anyway it's a discussion I'm sure has numerous counterpoints - all of which are likely valid.

Finding a good brand? The quality controls today and consumer expectations seem to make all products decent brands - just have to decide what entry level and trim is wanted IMO. I'm now more a fan of imports and Blue Oval than ever before since none of them needed financial bail out money and survived just fine. Only thing I look for now in the imports is value for $$. Honda, Toyota, Nissan, BMW, Lexus, Infinity, Mercedes, Land Rover etc high end models are way too rich for my blood. Hyundai and Kia on the other hand are making huge inroads on the NA market. I just don't see the selection/affordability from GM and Chyrsler brands that used to make the buying experience and test drives fun with them. Still a crap shoot for me to buy something. Maybe used.....

66-3X2 442

We live in a rural area and we have to drive a ways to get anywhere. We usually average 40 - 50K plus a year on our vehicles. We drive Toyota/Lexus and I have a 2008 Chevy 1500 LTZ pickup with a 105K +. I bought a 07 Lexus RX 350 back in Feb. to park my truck. It had 83 K when I bought it and it now has 103K. I shouldn't say this but it's been a great purchase for me. It's still running great with no problems other than maintenance. We use it for eveything and it lets my wifes 2011 Toyota Avalon and my truck sit to keep miles off them. When GM dropped Olds,that's when I went to Toyota and I haven't been sorry since. They do have issues sometimes and that's why they have service departments but for the money,I like them. Now,before I get this buy American spill from somebody,my Toyota was built in KY and my Chevy truck was built in Mexico.

Allan R

Cool! I totally understand. My 07 Sonata was built in Alabama and my wife's Saturn in TN. The Sonata has better fit/finish and overall QC than the Saturn any day of the week though.

oldcutlass

Eh, from a guy that sold cars for many years, they are all pos's. Just some of them are bigger more expensive pos's than others.

61reoldsman

I know my 06 Grand Caravan has had 3 pass tie rod ends installed since it was new the first one at 15k !and let's not talk about how many brake jobs its had ,also a rack and pinion ,power steering cooler ,(didnt even know it had one!),but the motor seems to be hummimg along nicely (thanks Mitsubishi )but I highly doubt that we'll be keeping it around for longer ,the only thing stopping us is that it's paid for and I always get sticker shock looking at the small SUV's that my wife wants plus they all look the same to me.lol

Swoopy

478,673 miles on a 95 Mazda. Love the 2.3 L never been opened. Two tranies and one clutch. Body is good garage kept. Engine runs like a top I'll buy another its so reliable. cold AC, no rattles, with original rear brakes! Front rotors, bearings and pads twice. All highway. Drivers seat needs replaced thought. All ford parts, with Mazda body. It does need front steering work, tie rods, ball joints now, but if it died I would kiss it and bow to its service. too bad wife wasn't that reliable! As for modern cars, there definately are more reliable, get better milage and are turn key. I do agree that life is much shorter on new cars.

jaunty75

Some statistics I found on the net:

average age of a car on the road in

2013: 11.4 years
2002: 9.6 years
1995: 8.4 years
1990: 6.5 years
1969: 5.1 years


The average age of a car on the road has been steadily increasing for decades. But this has only partly to do with their quality, although that has been increasing and is certainly one reason.

Cars cost more, or at least that's the impression, and 5 and 6-year car loans, which were unheard of in the '60s and '70s but which are relatively commonplace now, force people to keep cars longer before they have enough equity to trade them in. Downturns in the economy always cause people to keep cars longer, too, and that's part of the reason the average age is so high now. Also, leasing is not as popular, so fewer cars are being turned in after their two or three-year lease is up and being replaced by newly-leased cars.

As far as are the manufacturers actually building better-quality cars than they did back when the cars we collect now were built? I think so. But I also keep in mind that the manufacturers have one goal. That's to sell you a car, and then sell you another car two or three years later, and then sell you another car two or three years after that. That's how they make money. That's the whole reason the concept of the "model year" was introduced back in the 1920s. Obsolescence is part of the plan and always has been. Manufacturers want their cars to be durable enough, but not so durable that future sales are affected.

I remember back when there was a division of GM called Oldsmobile, and I remember people in the OCA complaining that GM and Oldsmobile never supported the OCA to the degree that people thought they should. But this never surprised me at all. Oldsmobile and GM couldn't have cared less about all the old Oldsmobiles out there. They didn't make any money from those old Oldsmobiles, and the goodwill gained by being supportive of the hobby was worth only so much and was probably difficult or impossible to quantify or correlate with any effect on sales. They would rather have had us all scrap our old Oldsmobiles and go out and buy new ones.

As an aside, it was always interesting to me, back in the '90s, when I first got heavily involved with the old car hobby and old Oldsmobiles, how few members of the chapter I was involved with or anyone I knew who was an old Olds hobbyist actually owned a NEW or late model Oldsmobile as a daily driver. No one did except me. (I owned an '02 Silhouete for about three years before we no longer needed a minivan and I traded it.) Everyone wanted a '68 442, but no one could give a s**t about a '98 Cutlass or a '96 Ninety-Eight. But that's what GM wanted us to do.

Olds64

Me and Allan R like 96 Ninety Eights!

Seriously though, those are some cool statistics Jaunty. I would agree that the economy has a big impact on the age of the vehicles people drive. Since the finacial crisis in 2008 the economy has been rather sluggish. People just aren't willing to buy a newer car as often.

lazy394

Never truer words said, Disposable.
Most new cars wont corrode or become unreliable as was the case years ago, they simply will no longer be economically viable to repair.
Take the Toyota Prius, the batteries have a 7 yr life expectancy @ 7k .By the time the car is 14 yrs old it will no long be viable to repair so it will be discarded.
Most new cars have so many computers running so many systems that they end up the weak link. Motors and trans etc will go forever but who is going to spend 2k fixing a computer in a 10 yr old car?
I have an 09 Ford Falcon XR6, so far all the faults and repairs are computer or sensor related. The Ac stops working every 6 months because the Climate control computer stops talking to the engine management computer...off to Fords to reset them both $88 bucks thanks see you in 6 months. 4 yrs into the model run guess what...they still do it. Its a well known fault that they seemingly have no interest in fixing....planned obsolescence. The list of failed sensors is mind numbing and plain frustrating.
But what do you do?
My 59 is not common because the things are difficult to maintain, expensive to run and rust claimed most of them early on in the piece.
No point in having a yearly model change only to have them last 20yrs!!
Seems the games the same as it has been since the 50's just repackaged.

marxjunk

i have an 06 chevy truck with 278,000 and still going strong..truck still has its original brakes and they still look like new..bought the truck with 39 miles on it and im the only one that drives it...mainteance is everything...

61reoldsman

Original Brakes with 278,00 miles ?? How do you that ,use your foot for braking out the door a la Fred Flintstone ?LOL

Olds442redberet

As nice as the new cars are, I am so afraid of the repair cost for any electrical/computor issues that are bound to happen, that I will not buy one. I sold my Mercedes last year as a result of high repair bills. I now drive a 1975 Cutlass Supreme. Yeah, it's old and it has a few issues from time to time, but they are normally easy to repair, quick to fix, and easy on the pocket book. And the Cutlass attracts so much more attention. So it's cheaper to own and operate and much cooler to drive.
I live in the south, so year round driving isn't an issue. No road salt.

Koda

A few points.

-There is a number of years a car's life is planned for by the manufacturer, at least there is with the one I work for.
-Transmission dipsticks have been eliminated for cost savings, but also to not allow contaminates into the transmission from that opening. I disagree with this thinking.
-Prius batteries are warrantied for 100k, I believe, and some of the Prius cabs in NYC are on 300k with the original battery.
-One can drive a stick, in the country, with very little brakes. I am on 130k with my truck with original everything except fluid and tires and battery.

Professur

Out of 12 cars I've put my name to over 25 years, 5 unibody cars were scrapped with perfect running engines when the bodies finally surrendered to rust. 3 are parked awaiting an order of unobtainium ... free time (2 of the 3 are body on frame needing some rust work, all 3 engines start perfectly). One was scrapped when the motor blew out with winter on the way, another (subaru) went as a trade in when the transfer case stopped working and I learned that nobody in the district could work on Subies 'cept the dealership. The last 2 are mine and the missus' daily drivers. One of those two, the wife's 2005 Malibu, has seen both the trans and engine replaced in the last 3 years.

Allan R

A lot of the newer cars/trucks use trans retarding (hydrostatic braking) to slow down. I have an 07 Sonata with a 5 speed AT. It slows down nicely with minimal brake usage, plus I use the manual downshift when I can. Driving smart also means leaving enough following distance to plan stops without aggressive braking. I have the original brakes in my car and they are less than 40% worn with a little over 65K miles. I'd bet a lot of the 278K miles on the Chev are highway too.

cwracer

Crown vic? Forever!

pogo69

in a lot of regards quality has gotten better remember the gm cars of the 80's...many were pretty terrible, a lot of the early stuff with aluminum engine parts caused problems untill they got the hang of it. the gm line of trucks/suv's improved greatly in the early 90's (especially in fit and finish) till now... my 99 intrigue has 190k and runs pretty much like new with basic service

Indy_68_S

A new 2014 car/truck ?

Drivetrains are refined to the point of easy 200-300K mis with maintenance and care.
However, at ~ 10 years the electronics start failing..... Subtle at first with just annoyances like seat heaters, memory seats, HVAC controls... then to more operational things like speedo cluster, ECMs, ECUs, BCMs, various proprietary sensors, etc..

(& there's also, depending where you live, tinworms...)

I seriously doubt anyone will be driving any unmodified 2014 models in 2064. The electronics will have disintegrated with no means of replacement.

Ha. You don't have to be in the country !

I had a '92 'Yota (pre Taco) HiLux 4x4 5sp pickup. Bought in '93 w/ 14K on it. Sold in 2004 at 200K mis. Still had original factory rear brakes (did fronts @ 130K) & clutch. Rear brakes were fine...clutch was just starting to exhibit wear...

With smart driving, I could make it clear across town (~20 mi's mixed) without touching the brakes !