Inside Baseball
October 30th, 2016, 10:18 AM
#1
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Inside Baseball
OK, sports types, the statistic is that only five times in the history of the World Series has a team come back from a 3-1 deficit with the last being the 1985 Kansas City Royals. Prior to 2016, there have been 111 World Series. So that would make that number 5 appear to be a pretty low percentage (5/111 = 4.5%)
But this is really the wrong question. What we need to know is, how many World Series REACHED the 3-1 mark? Five out of that number would be a more accurate representation of the challenge faced by the Cubs, and the percentage is certainly higher as not all World Series get to the 3-1 mark.
A little internet searching has turned up the answer. But the relevant statistics don't go back to the first World Series. Rather, they go back to the 1925 Series, which is the first one that followed the 2-3-2 format. There were also two World War II Series that didn't follow this format. The '43 Series, between the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Yankees, had a 3-4 format and was done that way because of World War II travel restrictions. This format required only one travel day instead of two. The '44 Series featured the St. Louis Cardinals vs the St. Louis Browns, and both teams shared the same home field, Sportsman's Park. All six games of that series, which was won by the Cardinals 4-2, were played in the same stadium.
From the above, we calculate that there have been 89 World Series that have followed the 2-3-2 format. Of that, 34 teams fell behind 3 games to 1, and, as noted earlier, five of those teams won the series. So that percentage is 5/34 = about 15%. A tough row to hoe for Chicago, but anything is possible.
Other statistics of interest regarding 3-1 World Series:
1. The Cubs would have to win the last two games on the road. The last time that happened was in the 1979 Series where the Pirates defeated the Orioles in a situation just like the current one. The Pirates, down 3 games to 1, won game 5 at home and then games 6 and 7 on the road at Baltimore. Since 1979, eight teams have gained a 3-1 lead AND had the final two games at home, the situation the Indians face now, and all eight ended up winning the Series.
2, Besides the '85 Royals and the '79 Pirates, the other three teams to come back from a 3-1 deficit were the '68 Detroit Tigers against the St. Louis Cardinals, and the Tigers had to win the last two at St. Louis, the 1958 Yankees against the Milwaukee Braves, and the Yankees had to win the last two at Milwaukee, and the 1925 Pirates over the Washington Senators, but the Pirates won their last two games at home.
3. Of those 34 teams that gained a 3-1 lead, 18 have gone on to win the Series in the very next game. In the other 16 situations, the trailing team forced a game 6. In nine of those 16 situations, the leading team finished things off in game 6. In the seven situations where a game 7 was forced, the TRAILING team won game 7 five times. Chicago is trying to become the sixth team to do this.
But this is really the wrong question. What we need to know is, how many World Series REACHED the 3-1 mark? Five out of that number would be a more accurate representation of the challenge faced by the Cubs, and the percentage is certainly higher as not all World Series get to the 3-1 mark.
A little internet searching has turned up the answer. But the relevant statistics don't go back to the first World Series. Rather, they go back to the 1925 Series, which is the first one that followed the 2-3-2 format. There were also two World War II Series that didn't follow this format. The '43 Series, between the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Yankees, had a 3-4 format and was done that way because of World War II travel restrictions. This format required only one travel day instead of two. The '44 Series featured the St. Louis Cardinals vs the St. Louis Browns, and both teams shared the same home field, Sportsman's Park. All six games of that series, which was won by the Cardinals 4-2, were played in the same stadium.
From the above, we calculate that there have been 89 World Series that have followed the 2-3-2 format. Of that, 34 teams fell behind 3 games to 1, and, as noted earlier, five of those teams won the series. So that percentage is 5/34 = about 15%. A tough row to hoe for Chicago, but anything is possible.
Other statistics of interest regarding 3-1 World Series:
1. The Cubs would have to win the last two games on the road. The last time that happened was in the 1979 Series where the Pirates defeated the Orioles in a situation just like the current one. The Pirates, down 3 games to 1, won game 5 at home and then games 6 and 7 on the road at Baltimore. Since 1979, eight teams have gained a 3-1 lead AND had the final two games at home, the situation the Indians face now, and all eight ended up winning the Series.
2, Besides the '85 Royals and the '79 Pirates, the other three teams to come back from a 3-1 deficit were the '68 Detroit Tigers against the St. Louis Cardinals, and the Tigers had to win the last two at St. Louis, the 1958 Yankees against the Milwaukee Braves, and the Yankees had to win the last two at Milwaukee, and the 1925 Pirates over the Washington Senators, but the Pirates won their last two games at home.
3. Of those 34 teams that gained a 3-1 lead, 18 have gone on to win the Series in the very next game. In the other 16 situations, the trailing team forced a game 6. In nine of those 16 situations, the leading team finished things off in game 6. In the seven situations where a game 7 was forced, the TRAILING team won game 7 five times. Chicago is trying to become the sixth team to do this.
October 30th, 2016, 02:22 PM
#4
Frank Ignachuck
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Maynard, Massachusetts
Posts: 1,287
November 4th, 2016, 07:49 AM
#14
Living and working in Cleveland, it was a fun ride... a disappointing finish but a great season nonetheless. I sensed the momentum shifting when the Cubs won game five. I knew we HAD to win game six because we really couldn't afford to have to play a game seven.
Fans here need to remember that the Cavs lost in the finals last year before coming back and winning this year... after being down 3-1 as well.
Our motto "Wait 'til next year." It seems appropriate with ALL of Cleveland sports.
Fans here need to remember that the Cavs lost in the finals last year before coming back and winning this year... after being down 3-1 as well.
Our motto "Wait 'til next year." It seems appropriate with ALL of Cleveland sports.
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