1968ragtop

Just wondering what you guys think. I'm wondering if muscle car prices have peaked and are going to continue to go down? The reason I think this is going to happen is who is going to be buying these cars, how many people in there 20's or early thirties are buying these cars and even if they want one could they or would they want to afford putting gas in them? If the demand drops prices will follow. Have you noticed prices going down?

Nilsson

I thought prices actually peaked back in 2005-2006. That is unless you have the rare of the rare the one of only one, ect.

1968ragtop

Yeah, I was thinking they had peaked around the start of the recession 2008 or so, but haven't been watching prices that close. I guess what I'm wondering is if prices have been slowly going down since then? and if they will continue to go down in the years to come because of lower demand and interest and increasing cost of fuel.

oldcutlass

After going to Mecum here in Dallas, I don't think there is any shortage of buyers. They seem to have stayed steady.

Bernhard

Go to a show or auction most everyone is old as people age out price will go down.

I think there will always be a market for very rare cars.

I'm also sad to say drag racing has peaked.

We had a big auction in my area and was able to get feed back from sellers and the auction people.
The 55-57 Chevs were down but the Vets still sold well.
So the 50's guys are ageing out.

vette442

Gas prices are almost zero concern for toys like these. Almost nobody is buying these cars as daily drivers or commuters. If you can drop $10-$30K or much more for a car like this - plus maintenance, restoration, etc. - the cost of gas (or even fuel mileage) is trivial. Especially when most of these cars get driven a few hundred miles per year.

There will always be fans of these cars for style, basis of modifications, nostalgia, etc. but the number will drop quite a bit with each decade since there are more people who did not grow up around these cars and therefore have no real reason to be excited about them. Yes, prices will decline as demand drops, especially on "lesser" cars and those in rough shape.I'm not counting on my fleet to be my IRA. I'm enjoying them now, because they'll probably be crusher food when I'm gone, unfortunately.

Terry

hookem horns

I agree driver quality muscle-era cars will suffer as the generations that grew up with them age out. Car addiction in younger generations is less common today, and those with the affliction seem to go for newer tuners or older rods. My opinion only and hope I'm wrong.

chadman

That may be but that is far from a true representation of the classic car market in the real world. I definitely think the market peaked 5-10 years ago. You still see cars for sale for the higher prices of years ago. The difference is that they used to move fast. Now more times than not they sit for sale until the seller comes into reality and adjusts the price or they just take it off the market and keep it.

Lonestar

JMO, but you can find a synopsis of what the future holds by viewing this forum's age poll https://classicoldsmobile.com/forums...e-bracket.html. The younger generations in general just don't share our passion for vehicles, all things mechanical, and sure don't want to get their hands dirty! As we "age out" (everything has to be PC today as well ) the demand for these cars will exponentially diminish. Glad I won't be around to see it!

CutlassDad

Prices falling off may have started with the reduction in the"numbers matching" frenzy of the early to mid 2000's.

natedrag

Which is very smart because I think many people do...and it's a mistake.

Mike77

I think those $ million dollar Hemi Cudas are going to worth about $1,000.00 25 years from now.

Tedd Thompson

I think were pretty safe for awhile anyway, my son in law has a BMW conv and when we take our cars out together he says he might as well be driving a Yugo. Class and style have timeless appeal. True the prices have dropped since the highs in the early 2000's but I have always felt that they were over inflated at that time. Remember during those times you could buy a house keep it for a year and flip it and make 30% on your investment. I think our cars probably are worth what we are selling them for now which is some where around pre 2000 prices.

When I started going to car shows the popular cars all had brass radiators and running boards. Those cars still command a premium price today, most of the buyers of that era are long gone but new people have moved in to take their place, If you think about it we are nothing very special in this hobby, if your ride is unique, classy or built well there will be someone around to buy and admire it ....Tedd

jaunty75

I was wondering about that myself. Doesn't "age out" = die?

Why don't we just say "when people die?"

68conv455

Seems to me the only price adjustment is our willingness to pay. Spending 20 or 30K today seems like normal. 10 years ago, spending that money seemed nuts.

starfire

A lot of them won't die right away, they will just be too feeble to buy and/or take care of a classic car.

Olds_71_442

I noticed a lot of people are saying that the younger generation prefers tuners or foreign cars, which seems to be true. But then again, it's quite difficult to find some of these old cars. Then, when you do find one, the seller wants a fortune and the young crowd has no choice but to go for the tuner car. But I know that whenever I park my Olds on the front lawn, every young guy that drives by almost takes the ditch staring at my car. No exaggeration. You can see the tracks on the shoulder of the road from losing control of their vehicle. When the younger generation can afford it and the cars are available, these old cars will still sell.

I should also add that the prices may have peaked and are coming down, but they were selling at outrageous prices anyways. None of these cars are worth
$250,000 no matter how rare they are.

oldcutlass

Dave, you have to remember demographics for an Olds is different. There is a similar poll on a Chevelle site. While the 2 polls are very similar, just not as many of the over 60 crowd:

http://www.chevelles.com/forums/showthread.php?t=159451

Oldracerjones

I monitor the prices on Almost every auction and like other people have noted the auction attendance is growing each year. I think buyers have become much more sophisticated and knowledgable about the product. When a car has rarity value, the price will reflect that sophistication by not having run away bidding. You don't see as much emotional voting like you used to.
I do think the farther these drop in years the less of our generation will be there with the desire and money to keep prices high except for the very rare cars. My era was the muscle cars and I have little interest in 30-40 autos. My son is the same on muscle cars, he doesn't see the allure.
Interesting topic.

hookem horns

Not trying to be PC, just trying to capture all the alternatives without getting too wordy. Above a certain age many folks lose interest, are physically less capable, retire to location that is not car friendly, or eventually die....

BTW, does not have to be that way (other than the final option). This guy is an 87 year old legend and still going strong. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_Winfield

Bernhard

[QUOTE=hookem horns;750452]Not trying to be PC, just trying to capture all the alternatives without getting too wordy. Above a certain age many folks lose interest, are physically less capable, retire to location that is not car friendly, or eventually die....



X2
Well said
I bought my car off the original owner it was just time for him to let the car go and use the money he got for the car for a boat.

RetroRanger

There's still plenty of younger kids interested in our cars....lotta times tho we don't care for the way they mod them....probably not unlike older folks didn't care for the way they were modded in the 60s and 70s either lol




http://www.just-spinner-rims.com/images/donk-14.jpg

Lonestar

Eric, thanks for posting the link.... it is interesting. Maybe in other parts of the country the youngsters are more involved? But in my car related travels, racing, cruising, etc. the demographic is decidedly slanted toward the 40+ age group. In particular the NHRA is struggling to find a program to entice the under 30 crowd. Heck, in my family, only the youngest son (35yr old) is interested in my race cars or the "play" cars; and none of their friends, now or in their youth, showed any interest. Disappointing considering we have 2 sons and two grandkids old enough to drive!

Went to a local cruise in last nite and more of my cars stayed home than participated 'cause I cant drive 'em all and the bride likes to ride. I still have hope as I have a 10yr old grand daughter with another due later this month!

oldcutlass

Dave I understand first hand your frustration as my son has no real interest in cars any more either. He grew up around them but it never truly became a passion for him. I'd swear he wasn't mine but I was there when he popped out. Unfortunately he wasn't switched at the hospital either. These kids just don't look at cars the same way we did and unfortunately probably never will.

The 2 polls show the lack of participation in the under 20 group. So my view is that there are probably another 30 or so years left in the car hobby.

joe_padavano

Classic car pricing has been overrated for years. Too many people have been watching BJ and other televised auctions and everyone thinks their P.O.S. is worth a million bucks. Check completed auctions on ebay and you'll see that the high dollar cars rarely sell. I've been doing this for many years and the trend isn't new. I just got back from Fall Carlisle and few of the cars at the auction sold either. There's too much hype and expectations set too high due to (un)reality television.

1968_Post

No doubt the prices have been inflated, but I also have experienced the escalated costs of restoration. When finished with my '68 442, I will have spent in the vicinity of$23k, including the price of the car, and that's figuring my time is worth nothing. From what I'm seeing, if I was to ask $25k for the car, I'm positive I'd be told the car is overpriced.

To me it seems sellers may be asking too much and many buyers are looking to spend less than the value of the car... not a good scenario.

oldcutlass

Sellers have always asked too much, ask any buyer. $25k in a car is not bad doing it yourself, just imagine the poor guy who does it through his wallet and absorbs the parts price markup, labor, and storage.

joe_padavano

It has NEVER been profitable to restore a car like that. Sorry, but this is not new. It is always less expensive to buy one completely finished than to restore it yourself. It REALLY isn't profitable if you are paying a shop to do it. The seven-day wonders you see on (un)reality TV are either losing money (once ALL costs are considered) or have such slipshod work that you'd never want to own it. A basic quality paint job done by a shop is $8K-$10K BEFORE any bodywork, for example.

Restoring a car is just like remodelling an old house. You'll NEVER know what you're going to find, and it will ALWAYS cost more and take longer than you think. I do it for the enjoyment of the restoration, not to turn a profit. As I like to say, I still build model cars, but now they're one-to-one scale.

Koda

Too many fathers spend too much time teaching their kids the technical part and not inspiring the passion. A kid will not consider these cars important unless he has done fun things he considers important with people he considers important in these cars. My dad did not have project cars as I was growing up, he just kept them forever. As such, I miss our 78 CJ7 we got stuck in the woods often hunting and that I learned to drive on, I'll restore his 73 Club Wagon here soon, and someday I'll end up with his little red Chevy 2 seater he bought to fit in with the Air Force pilots 40+ years ago.

We kept them running, but the fun was had in what we did with them. I'll happily discuss the ins and outs of Quadrajets all day long, but not everyone wants to do that, so sometimes less bolts and more fun is the key.

The interest will be there, but the prices will drop. I'm not in it for the money, so I don't care. All the 50s doo-whop BS crowd and the hot rod crowd is now seriously old, and it doesn't bother me. I've seen enough tri-five Chevies to last the rest of my life, and the only hot rods I like are the ones that take the Hill at Newport, IN (non original engines need not apply.)

The problem with what RetroRanger posted is that that is just one subculture that people who aren't part of that demographic are not welcome to participate in, nor would we want to do so. No new wheels for me, my 442 will sit on one year only disc brake compatible SSIs.

1968_Post

I'm not in the hobby for the money, never said I was. I am, however, as a "seriously old guy", not in a position where I can blindly dump money into a project with little expectation of recovering at least a major portion of the expense of the restoration. I'm not looking to recover my time, that's where the hobby comes in. Those of us who are able to restore homes and cars with no concern as to the financial consequences are truly fortunate to be in that position. I just don't happen to be one of them...

oldcutlass

I assure you most of us are budget minded and want to at least break even on the sale of one of our cars. I also consider the entertainment value of any project.

costpenn

A seeming disconnect with the above commentary from Joe is that although finished cars generally seem to be stagnant, prices for repo parts, especially from the specialty restoration houses, continue to climb at a rate far greater than the appreciation on finished cars - or for that matter even relevant to overall inflation. Interestingly, prices for stock replacement parts (brake drums, pads, filters, front end parts, etc..) remain constant, or decrease year upon year.

Yearly price increases of 10 to 15% on some repo items, especially on the single brand specific stuff may be leading to a "Catch 22" on restoration costs if final value is a consideration to the owner. Some services are seeing this phenomena - paint and body work costs may not be increasing that much on the hourly rates, but it just SEEMS like the hours required to do anything continues to increase.

76olds

My 1976 no where near qualifies as a classic collector car , However kids of all ages say wow what a nice car when its out. So if I had something pre 73' as most on the forum do, I would think your cars will hold value for many years to come.

classicmuscle442

Restoration paid for is not the same as doing it yourself, still able to find decent cars and not pay to much. Some sellers think there cars are worth B.J. prices, but just have to wait them out and they come back to reality. Think that in the future there will be guys that want the cars and will pay a fair price.

RetroRanger

I think koda hit it or at least part of it, the cars that are my faves are the cars me, my friends, or parents had when I was young, 14-22 ish years old . The 60s mustangs , early broncos, 70s f150s, cutlass etc. these are the vehicles we banged around in and fixed up etc.today's kids have much less exposure to those cars and as such haven't formed a bond w them. But while that may be somewhat disappointing to us good news is some may take to the newer cars like we did to these cars back in the day. No I'm not talking about your neighbors Camry or Hyundai, let's face those cars are hard to love today never mind in 40 years from now. Anyway yesterday on my way to work I was the first car behind the school bus of high school age kids. The boy in the back stopped talking looked at my car ( newer model muscle car) and gave me the thumbs up, he then musta said something to his friends cuz 2 more heads popped up to look at the car!

Joffroi

Just throwing out my 2 cents....
I don't think the "average" muscle/classic car market is going to really decline too much. This is throwing out cars 6 figures and above because odd ball rarity adds subjective values. They may get hit. Old cars, especially your muscle cars from the 68-72 era, were just built in a completely differently. I'm in my 20s and was raised in a family that didn't (and still doesn't) care anything about cars. It wasn't until a co-worker of mine let me ride in his 70 cutlass that I felt I had to have one. Its a totally different world driving these old cars and it always will be. Instead of spending $20 to go to the movies, I would much rather put a couple gallons of gas in my 442 and drive around. Although I've gotten really lucky with my classic car buy and sells, its not an investment. Its a hobby and entertainment. People pay big money to travel, other pay for cars.

Also, below is a graph of all the 1968 442s that have been posted on my website in the past 2 years (103 in total) ranging from projects to some over priced customs. There doesn't seem to be a downward slope. This is just an example graph.

M6acyPn.png

shepo1

Interesting post... I think the complexity of today's cars turns people off to working on them and becoming interested.. My Son (18) was the one that kept bugging me to get the 442 going.. So he definitely has interest. His first car was a 1992 Mits 3000 GT. these are way harder to work on then my 442. About the only think you can do with out major work is Change the oil.. To change the spark plugs, you have to pull the intake manifold off, to change belts you have to pull half the side of the car off.. We did a transmission swap, my good it took us almost a month.. LOL.. So much stuff crammed in a small space, special tools ect. I think we have interest in the cars we grew up with.
If found it interesting that My first car was the 68 442.. bought it when i was 19.. so lets see car was 15 year old at that point and cheap for me to buy as i didn't have any money. His first car was a 92 and bought it in 2012 so 20 years old.. paid 2K and that was cheap..LOL.. all he could afford.. . Same buying pattern.. I keep telling him to take care of it and in 20 years it will be very collectible, just like mine.. well see.. LOL.. But the point is.. kids 18-22 dont have cash to be buying these old cars.. so they will by what is cheap for them..

So ya that number of peeps in our age group will diminish.. but then so will the number of available cars.. so i think prices will stabilize at some point..

found this link.. kinda interesting.
http://www.hagerty.com/valuationtools/market-trends

Diego

Likewise, for not a lot of scratch, you can buy a Mustang GT and go faster than 99% of the Mustangs from the muscle car era. With AC, no less, and getting 25 mph. And it will start every single time.

Hell, even a V6 Accord will be faster than many (most?) "regular" 4-4-2s. We live in a golden age right now, and it's not going to get worse the way it did in 1971-2.

With cars like that, who needs a 4-4-2?

We'll be reduced to a fringe like those on Antiques Roadshow, and we'll have a glut of old cars, driving prices down. But that won't happen till the Boomers start dying. Until they start dwindling in numbers, I think prices will remain constant aside of an economic downturn...and those cars that won't be affected by such are those favored by the rich.

Gary M

You wont get the ride in a rice burner that you get in an OLDS

Diego

To you, maybe. But the rest of the world doesn't care.