I know that 12,212 Dynamic 88 convertible cars were built in 19 and 62. I am fortunate enough to own one of them!

What I am trying to get a handle on is how many of the original 12,212 are still around today?

If you have one, do stand up and be counted. The following info will be of help and interest (info on mine is given) -

Plant Manufactured: Lansing
Selling Dealer State: Illinois
Original Purchaser State: Indiana
Current Location: Wisconsin
Carb: 2 bbl
Color: Ebony (Black)
Interior: Gray & White
Odometer Current: 35,584 (Actual)

 

There must be a website or service that would provide that information for minimal cost.

 

No one provides a service like this. This issue has been hashed over many times on classicoldmobile.com.

No one site or company or agency or anything can possibly keep track of every vehicle ever built in the history of automobile manufacturing and keep a record of where they are and when they get scrapped. States keep motor vehicle records, not the federal government. That's 50 separate government agencies. And they don't likely keep them very long.

I would doubt that every state, or even any state, bothers to keep track of why a vehicle that had been registered in that state no longer was. The car could could have been scrapped, or it might just have moved to another state and be registered there. When I register my vehicles each year in Ohio, the state doesn't ask me why I'm not registering this year a car I had registered last year if, during the year, I traded in or sold or gave away or lost in an accident I car I had owned. Maybe salvage yards report vehicles turned in to them, but that's probably to avoid fraud and not to keep a comprehensive database of vehicles.

So the type of information D. Yaros is after is strictly anecodotal. He'll hear from whoever has one and subscribes to classicoldsmobile.com and chooses to post their info, but that's nothing at all like an exhaustive listing of every car like his still in existence. As popular as this site is, barely a small fraction of Oldsmobile owners around the country and around world are members and post messages on it.

A better count might be gotten by surveying the membership in the Oldsmobile Club of America, which has about 6,000 members which is much larger than the subscription count at CO, but even that doesn't guarantee reaching every possible owner of an old Oldsmobile.

 

There are very few cars with detailed survival statistics, and those tend to be either cars that didn't change often and are considered iconic (Jaguar E-type) or cars with very limited production runs (Ferrari 250 GTO). For estimating, I usually assume about a 1 in 50 survival rate for the most common models (Ford Falcon), and a 1 in 10 rate for something like your Dynamic 88. That would be for cars still around, whether in a museum with 37 original miles or half-submerged in a cottonhead-infested swamp. It would be hard to get a registry going, because of the amount of owners who A) Don't know about this website, B) Don't care about registering their car, C) Don't care about the car, or D) Don't use the internet.
That being said, it would be interesting to have a forum tool where you can register your car.

 

I think this is WAY too optimistic. Government statistics suggest a very average survival rate after 25 years of 1%.

There's no way that 1,200 1962 Dynamic 88 convertibles still exist. I think 100 is a more likely number or perhaps a bit more because it's a convertible. 150? Maybe 200?

We'll never know for sure, but I think the safest estimates are based on department of transportation and other government agency statistics.

 

Damn the optimist in me. I was thinking 1% would be a bit harsh, but it makes sense.

 

If you want an interesting read on the subject, go here:

http://transmidas.elementfx.com/Pape...0795_Miaou.pdf


It gets a bit technical, but the interesting figure is on the bottom left of page 8. I've reproduced it below. It shows the rate of vehicle scrappage for five model years (1970, '75, '80, '85, and '90). They vary a bit in exact shape, but they all end at about 1% after 25 years.

After that, it tends to level out as there are always SOME examples of a particular model around somewhere. They're being collected or just surviving as a daily driver or sitting in a barn somewhere.

 

I agree that no central source of this info exists, and whatever I might find would encompass only those who bother to respond. (Does a response equal being anecdotal?)

I am not limiting my search to CO. I have also posted on ROP and the AACA fora. I am a member of both OCA and NAOC. I do not know that I have ever seen from either a directory with name/model/location info that would help?

1% extant today, boy that is a low number! Its accuracy may explain why I do not see other cars like mine?

 

Anecdotal means that your survey is just based on whoever chooses to respond. It would not be comprehensive or exhaustive as you could never know for sure that you reached every person who might own a car like yours.


I've always been a bit surprised that the OCA doesn't make available a list of all the Oldsmobiles owned by its members. At least, I've never seen one mentioned. If people want their privacy, they can choose not to have their name associated with their car, but many people, I'm guessing, would want to make contact with other owners of cars like theirs.

But it always seemed to me it would be a simply matter for the OCA to sort their list various ways and tell us how many 1962 Dynamic 88 convertibles or how many 1966 Cutlass convertibles or whatever are owned by the membership.

This kind of a listing would be about as close to comprehensive as you can get. But even then, not every old Olds owner is a member of the OCA, so you would still not be sure of reaching everyone.

 

Sorry. Actually, anecdotal means that the information is based on a story or stories, and not on a statistical study ("I gave that guy cayenne pepper for his sinus infection, and he was cured the next day!")

"Whoever chooses to respond" is self-selection bias.

Then, when the responders are asked questions about things that happened in the past (as opposed to watching what they're doing right now), they exhibit recall bias.

- Eric

 

You seem to be out to shoot down everything I say today. First it's Carly Simon. Now it's this.

My definition was close enough. His survey will not be comprehensive. That makes it anecdotal. It just means it's subjective, not objective.


See #2 here:

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/anecdotal

 

Sorry, Jaunty. I didn't mean anything personal.
Maybe it's just because I've always had a crush on Carly Simon...

While I recoil at the thought of underpinning any meaningful argument with information garnered from the interwebs, I will grit my teeth and do so in this instance, as I think I may be able to avoid soiling my hands too badly.

Google's definition:
Not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research.
Characterized by or fond of telling anecdotes.

Dictionary.com's definition:
based on personal observation, case study reports, or random investigations rather than systematic scientific evaluation: anecdotal evidence.

Merriam-Webster's definition:
: based on or consisting of reports or observations of usually unscientific observers <anecdotal evidence>

Your FreeDictionary.com definition:
Based on casual observations or indications rather than rigorous or scientific analysis

The word "anecdotal" (from the Greek - ek: "out" + didonai: "to give" = ekdotos: "published" + an: "not" = "not published," or stories passed about surreptitiously (ie: rumours)) had attained its current conversational meaning of "brief, amusing stories" by the 1700s.

It's meaning in the scientific community, in reference to levels of scientific understanding, is clear and well established, though, and that meaning is of an understanding based on stories or experiences, rather than on organized scientific study.
As this discussion was started by Mr. Yaros asking whether a voluntary response to an organized study made that study anecdotal ("...whatever I might find would encompass only those who bother to respond. (Does a response equal being anecdotal?)"), and by your reply affirming what he had said ("Anecdotal means that your survey is just based on whoever chooses to respond."), your reply was inaccurate, because an organized study provides evidence that is not anecdotal, regardless of whether it is an observational study, or one that relies on the participants' memories, or one that mines seemingly insignificant data.
Also, anecdotal evidence is taken as having a different degree of credibility than evidence from a top-notch research study, but it is not assumed to be inaccurate, and has often been found to be quite accurate after extensive study.

I don't mean to be critical, but when someone says something that differs grossly from accepted fact, I feel that I must point out the error so that other readers do not take it as correct.

Once again, I'm sorry, and do not mean to personally criticize you in any way, but the definition you presented is simply not accurate.

- Eric

 

Geesh, Eric..your'e being ****.

 

You could go through the 2003 OCA member directory, which lists members and their vehicles, but this too was voluntary to submit the info by the members and many did not. At the time, a friend had two 442's, but acknowledged none. Still, might get you a few more numbers.

 

Been accused of worse.

Point is that much of our current understanding of science and medicine is based on scientific research studies, and if we confuse the accepted terms used in these studies, they can be used to confuse us rather than to enlighten us.

We see news reports of new studies all the time, and the results of these studies change our lives (Lipitor, anyone?), and if we cannot understand them, we are giving up a significant amount of our autonomy to others whom we must now "trust" to give us the correct interpretation from "on high."

- Eric

 

2003 OCA directory has 7 owners of 62 Dynamic 88 converts listed.

Henry

 

Is that the most recent directory there is? I don't see any mention (at least an obvious one) of a directory on their website.

 

If I didn't know better, I'd say he reminds me of me.

 

Did they do a CD/DVD update a couple of years ago?

 

Someone needs to save the world from itself.

- Eric

 

In fact I did look at the Dec. 2011 NAOC Member Directory. It shows a grand total of 3 1962 Dynamic 88 convertibles; 1 of which is me!

 

Here is a place that can provide the info you are looking for.

They have several services including "How Many Are Left"

I paid $19 for the info for my 61 Starfire in 1998.


Automotive Information Clearinghouse

(619) 447-7200

email: service@automotive information.com

Box 1746, La Mesa, Ca 91944


Dave

 

Thanks for the info. I am familiar with this concern. Sadly, I believe investigation will reveal this guy is no longer in business. The info he used to provide was interesting, but how it was determined was/is a mystery.

 

I used the same "How many are left". Only paid $10 in 1990.

IIRC, the service used title searches and came up with how many cars were actually still titled or registered?

Remember this was over 20 years ago, before the internet.

 

Well, I have sent off an email to the Automotive Information Clearinghouse. We shall see if the email goes through and/or I get a response? Result report shall follow.

 

I emailed the guy. Here is what I got back:

Delivery to the following recipient failed permanently:

service@automotiveinformation.com

Technical details of permanent failure:
DNS Error: Domain name not found