Does anyone know of numbers (or approximations) on how many 1967 Cutlass Supreme convertibles were built with a 3 speed manual floor shift?

 

No, there are not production records that specific. But I do have some that can give you figures in a broader scope.
The 3-spd manual floor shift was the M14 heavy duty 3-spd manual trans with a Hurst shifter. Was available with in all A-bodies with a V8, and was the standard transmission with the 442 option.
There were approx 1540 Cutlass Supremes (includes Sports Coupes, Holiday Coupes, and Convertibles) that came with the M14. Subtract the 918 that went with the 442s, and that leaves approx 622. Not specific to the Convertible model, but at least that gives you something close to consider. Anything more specific would be a guess.
There were 87 Cutlass Supreme Convertibles with the 442 option and the M14.
I think a guess of about 100 Cutlass Supreme Convertibles (non-442) would be a reasonable guess, but considerably more, or less, is possible.

 

wow........that really cuts it down. according to another site I saw, the total non-442 cutlass htps and convs is 62184. if approx 622 of these are 3 spd manuals and only abt 12.5 % of the 62184 are convs then it is likely that the figure of 100 is probably the absolute max, even if a disproportionately high # of convs was built with the 3 speed. and if you figure the 3 speed # as being the same % of cars as the 442 ragtop was then you'd still be under 100.

anyway, my 2 cents of guesses..........thanks much for the help wmachine

 

I'm not really one who likes to estimate the number of cars built, but I feel compelled that your statistics are incorrect, and here's why.

Let's say 10% of a 10,000 sample came were convertibles. That would mean 1,000 cars, right?

And let's say it's quite possible 622 3-speed cars were built.

However, it is statistically incorrect to apply 10% to the 622 to arrive at an estimate of 3-speed convertibles. The 10% is taken from a sample of 10,000, and the percentage of 3-speed cars are taken from the same sample. Applying the percentage to something that's not the sample is a big no-no because the 10% is only based on the sample number.

It's been over 10 years since I've taken stats, so I possibly may not be explaining it well but I've been around the block enough to know that bad math doesn't really help the hobby.

 

Not sure thw different sample number is the issue...my (limited) understanding of the statistical principle in this case, which I think is the "theory of large numbers", is that the true odds can only be seen with a large sample size. So if I throw a coin the air 1000 times, very likely the number of tails showing after it lands will be close to 500 (as there is a 50-50 chance of it landing on one side or the other).

If I throw the same coin 100 times, I'll still very likely count close to 50 tails up. BUT if I throw it say only 5 times, by randome chance I may well see 4 tails, and should not conclude from that the probability of tails is 4/5!

If the case of the transmission usage, I think the offered percentages may well be wrong, but for a different reason than different sample size...I think the premise that the percentage of 3 speed cars across body styles would be the same is simply not (necessarily) a valid one.

I think as Kurt offered, its simply not possible to know for sure. I suppose guessing can be fun though, haw haw!

 

Not sure the different sample numbers is the issue...my (limited) understanding of the statistical principle you may be thinking of, the "law of large numbers", is that the true odds can only be seen with a large sample size. So if I throw a coin the air 1000 times, very likely the number of tails showing after it lands will be close to 500 (as there is a 50-50 chance of it landing on one side or the other).

If I throw the same coin 100 times, I'll still very likely count close to 50 tails up (i.e. 50% of the total number of throws). BUT if I throw it say only 5 times, by random chance I may well see 4 tails, and should not conclude from that the probability of tails is 4/5!

If the case of the transmission usage, I think the offered percentages may well be wrong, but for a different reason than different sample size...sample numbers aside, I think the premise that the percentage of 3 speed cars across body styles would be the same is simply not (necessarily) a valid one. Maybe people who bought convertibles for example would be more likely to want a stick car than people who bought another body style. Or maybe they would be more likley to buy a 4 speed if they were going to buy a stick, and only cheap old bastids who bought 4 door cars would also opt for a 3 speeder. Who knows?!

I think as Kurt offered, its simply not possible to know for sure. I suppose guessing can be fun though, haw haw!

 

I wasn't referring to sample size, but the percentage based on a sample.

Another way to see it is that if, let's say, 15% of all Cutlasses had manual transmission, he can't apply that 15% to the number of ragtops to arrive at an estimate. This is because the 15% was initially arrived with the whole population of Cutlasses; using the number of ragtops is a different sample, so it would be statistically incorrect.

I was not taking Kurt to task for making an estimate, especially since he said it "would be a reasonable guess, but considerably more, or less, is possible." Instead, I was trying to make sure someone (the owner) doesn't get carried away - I can't help it because I like numbers.

 

I see what you guys mean........and guessing can sometimes be fun. It would seem odd, though, that say, half of the 3 speed cars were ragtops when only 12.5% of the 2 door cars were ragtops. I would think that some of the 3 speed cars were spec ordered for the purpose of using them for towing sometimes, which is less likely to be a ragtop, imo. I also did not include any 4 door cars in the % figure or the prod figure of 62184 as a 4 door car with a manual shift on the floor was a extremely rare bird even then - i mean, was it even possible to buy a 4 dr with that configuration?

I can also say that this is the first 3 spd flr shift ragtop I've seen, which is true, but i've only ever seen 2 others (spt coupes), so the sampling is too small to get any idea whatsoever.

I should note that I am not the owner of the car........not yet anyway.