joe_padavano

We often wonder "how many are left". I just ran across some data put together by Oak Ridge National Labs (your tax dollars at work). In a 2006 study, they looked at the aggregate survival rates for various model year cars by years on the road. I'll summarize:

1970 model year
10 yr old - 61% survive
20 yr old - 10% survive (I had heard this number before)
30 yr old - 0.4% survive

1980 model year
10 yr old - 67%
20 yr old - 14%
30 yr old - 0.8%

1990 model year
10 yr old - 84%
20 yr old - 35%
30 yr old - 6.6%

Clearly cars are being built better than before, likely due to better rustproofing. Also, this is an average and doesn't account for the improved survival of desirable models. It also doesn't account for the fact that there are probably more 69 Camaros on the road now than in 1969...

RetroRanger

interesting

seeing where most of our cars are 40 years or older I wonder what the survival rate is for 40 years

I agree w the rustproofing adding to a cars lifespan as well as better easier access to repairs and parts

joe_padavano

I'm guessing that they stopped at 30 years because the numbers were so small - the error bars on the data are much larger than the value of the data itself at that point.

Here's something else to think about. In the 1970 model year, Detroit produced just under 8 million cars. Even assuming the survival rate has flattened out at 0.4% (unlikely, even if you just consider how many cars of that vintage are getting destroyed by Hollywood in movies and TV shows these days!), there are only about 31,000 1970 model year cars from any US automaker still in existence.

That seems pretty low. I'm betting the data is really cars that are still registered, as opposed to those that are in existence, period.

m371961

I do not understand the 1990 data. How many 1990 models were 20 and 30 years old in 2006?

joe_padavano

Good point. I should have noted that those were projected numbers.

jaunty75

Those numbers basically support what has long been a very rough rule of thumb for old car survival rates. About 1% of a car's original production is still on the road after 25 years. After that, it tends to level out as those that remain are being kept because they're collector cars, etc., and are no longer being used as daily drivers.

Nasty455

Oil technology is the reason todays cars last longer...they are definately not made better...plus a lot of cars are leased then sit on the used lots for another 5 years...I laugh every time I pass a stealership...800 cars that nobody wants...

1969w3155

I would think that as a whole, muscle cars are fewer in number than those averages due to the abuse bestowed on them.

oldsonharmont

Time will tell if there was anything automotive worth saving from the 80's and 90's.

oldcutlass

I would have to disagree on oil tech being the reason cars are lasting longer. Engines of today have tolerances and construction far better than their predecessors. A car engine can last 250k miles easy, back in the 60's and 70's 60-100k was the point where you needed to do major repairs.

Leasing has dropped off dramatically in the last 10 years. Most cars sit on a dealer lot for no longer than 90 days.

We lost a lot of vehicles with the cash for clunkers program, previously during the multitude of fuel pricing swings over the years, many vehicles were scrapped because no one wanted them. I remember back in the 70's, you could not give away a big block car.

stevengerard

makes sense to me, I was just wondering about how long the newer cars last as they say we now as a country have on the average the oldest cars on the road that we ever have. Most people are driving a 7 year old car - in 1977 many of the 1970 cars (39%) were either sitting idle because of gas prices, rusted out or totaled - more than 2 times as many 1970 cars out of service after 10 years than 1990 cars that are 10 years old.

I also wonder what recycling is doing to the newer cars. As years ago parts cars sat in yards for years waiting to keep another car alive. Today cars get recycled much quicker and there are much less parts available. Or does that just increase the likely hood of cheap knock off parts being made which hurts the environment even more.

Some cars such as convertibles probably have much better survival rates and then unique cars as well, such as DeLorian's, Bricklin's and probably the pace car replica's.

joe_padavano

Sorry, but I have to disagree. Few cars from the 1960s went over 100,000 miles. Most would have needed an engine rebuild by then. My 1999 Chevy truck has nearly a quarter million miles on the untouched original engine (I did put a timing chain in at 150K but that was purely preventative maintenance because the water pump was already off and, well, I MIGHTASWELL...). My 86 Chevy truck has 125,000 miles on it. My 84 Custom Cruiser is about the same. Better oil is certainly one reason, but the real reason is that emissions laws and CAFE requirements have resulted in EFI, which results in more precise A/F mixtures. Not washing a bunch of gasoline down the cylinder walls on a cold start does WONDERS to engine life. Also, improved seals (you're using a piece of ROPE for the main seals??!?) and bearings help a lot.

Obviously collectible cars have a higher survival rate. On the other hand, minivans and undesirable cars probably drag the average down. As an example, Ford built over 1,000,000 Mustang IIs in the 1970s. The data suggests that somewhere close to 10,000 should still be on the road. That's more Mustang IIs now than there were 1970 442s ever built. When was the last time you saw a Mustang II on the road? How about a 70 442? Even more to the point, there were nearly 3.5 million Pintos built - when have you seen one of THOSE on the road.

1969w3155

...and in the last ten years I have seen exactly two Chevy Citations, and only one of them is nice, as it turns up at a regional car show most years.

joe_padavano

Funny you should mention that. There's an X11 that comes to our local show.

oldcutlass

Hey Joe, I think Rob has a Pinto.

lshlsh2

My first car was a 85 chevy citation II. Had a 4 speed and an Iron Duke 4. It was a good first car. Got 33mpg highway which was great going back and forth to college. I also know of a pinto sitting in a yard rusting away if somone wants a project.

Larry

joe_padavano

Isn't that by definition?

1969w3155

Well, Joe...I don't think that they are driving that far east to a car show, but ya never know!

joe_padavano

The one at our show was a burnt orange color. While these are really crappy cars, it was kind of perversely cool to see one.

shatrab

Ughhh! I grew up with my parents having 2 Pintos in the driveway at one time! My dad actually ordered a brand new wagon with a manual transmission (4 speed?). Probably a very rare car (Pinto and rare should not be in the same sentence). My older sister ended up getting a Pinto hatchback and it survived 3 separate accidents. She gave it to my dad when she started working full time (gave her the opportunity to total 2 Fieros, 1 rabbit, 1 Dodge Omni and others not mentioned). When that last Pinto (the one sis gave Dad) finally gave up the ghost, my dad bought a CITATION! I was destined to have a crappy first car (between my sister totaling everything on wheels, and my parents having an aversion to Pintos)!

Lady72nRob71

Yep, projected numbers mean nothing to me. Show me true results, not what someone wants us to see.

I think there are quite a few nice unique 80's cars out there but very few 90s cars as they all turned to the 'bubble class' by then.
With the difficulty and expense of repairing later model cars, I expect them to not stay around very long. I see many 90's cars in yards that are not even wrecked. Even a poor and very cheap friend of mine finally had to ditch her 90's camry due to the constant expense. She also scrapped her daughter's 2001 sentra for the same reason. Each had about 100-120k miles.

Yep, and he has always shown his distaste for them.
While disliked by many for being a small, cheap, slow car, they are actually pretty good for what they are. Ask anyone who have owned one, and usually they will agree. I hear this by strangers whom I meet here and there as I stop for gas or for shopping. Mine has been very reliable and cheap to drive and cheap to maintain - the Pinto's purpose. This is the main reason I still have it and drive it. It has 158k on it and no rebuilds of anything, or major repairs. It it caused problems I would get rid of it. In fact the Caddy will go first due to its complexity and predicted problems.

That is what happens to ANY car that sits and is ignored. Tree crap holding moisture, parking on moist ground will do just that.
My Pinto has no rust holes and has been garaged less than 25% of its life.
It is also my winter driver so it gets driven in the rain. Even the doors are rust free inside! Its original paint still holds some shine, unlike my sister's 95 Acura which has lost about 30% of its paint...

My Pinto will be showing up soon at local shows in the 'survivor' class, as I want to see some reactions. After a local friend gets his wagon restored we may make some of the farther Pinto-only shows, called the Stampede.

You might see 20 Mustangs per show, but how many Pintos do you see?
They were the transition from the big V8 sedans we loved to the dreaded econoboxes of today. A big part of automotive history, though a not so nice one...

442rocketdave

The National Insurance institute has a scrapage number for all cars and it was 3% but for high performance cars it was 4% per year, that was a rule of thumb for the Insurance companies, when you apply that times say a 1970 442 with the total cars produced 19,709 times the years gone by 43 x3%/591= none left but we know different and it does seem odd that there are so many 69 camaro's out there, but they built 243,085 alone that year consider how many 442s built from 64-72=178,451 You can see Oldsmobile numbers are extremely small in comparison not to mention the Gadzillion mustangs?

Lady72nRob71

Cool story! I can relate to this....

Pintos themselves are rare, ones that still run are even more rare, and those surviving as 'drive anywhere' cars are very rare! I have seen some with only a couple thousand miles and have been in museums - the rarest of all, with original tires and hoses, etc.

A four speed (a good German design) and four cyl came standard, even on the wagons. Very common powertrain. An auto was available but it robbed power. Later on a V6 was available but only with an auto so it would not compete with the Mustang II.

Funny to say mine had survived 6 accidents and has been totalled out at least 4 times. It did put a Monte carlo and and accord in the junkyard.
Two of the times insurance money was just enough to tweak the frame back in position. No other parts required!

shatrab

Yep... All my family's Pinto's were 4 cylinders... I agree completely that the auto robbed power as Dad's 4 speed wagon seemed sluggish... Until Mom got an auto wagon with air to share the driveway...
They were definitely indestructible. My sister's accidents totaled all other cars she has owned... Her hatchback weathered 3 by itself and kept going. Once my uncle straightened the frame by backing into a telephone pole (door and frame were separated by about an inch when she caught her back bumper on a car's front end after pulling out in front of them in one of her known accidents with that car).

By the way, just before the first gas crisis in 73, my Mom had a Cutlass Supreme!